Harry Ford's Ceiling Could Be Lower Than Nationals Fans Realize
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One of the most exciting moves of the Washington Nationals' offseason was when they landed star catching prospect Harry Ford in a trade with the Seattle Mariners.
Not only did that seemingly fill a major roster issue for the future of this franchise, but it also appeared like they might have found their 2026 Opening Day starter depending on how things went this spring.
There's no doubt that at some point Ford will be the starting backstop for the Nationals. But it's unclear if he is going to become the elite catcher he was billed to be when he was first coming up the minor league ranks after FanGraphs' latest assessment paints a murkier picture about his ceiling.
Harry Ford Ranked No. 71 in Latest Updated Rankings
First, the 2026 prospect rankings put out by FanGraphs has Ford slotted in at No. 71 overall in the sport. That's certainly a respectable spot, but it pales in comparison to how he was viewed previously.
Much of that could have to do with the amount of time he has spent in the minors since he was never going to unseat Cal Raleigh as the starting catcher of the Mariners. Because of that, at the age of 23, he has just eight major league games under his belt. However, this ranking is not what fans should be focusing on when it comes to him possibly having a lower than originally expected; it's the assessment laid out by FanGraphs.
harry ford season 1 teaser trailer pic.twitter.com/hYx4m3zhJv
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) February 13, 2026
"If you put a lot of stock in swing decisions, well, he's your guy, too. Patience isn't a carrying tool, but an approach this good helps augment the ones he has. Scouts and evaluators are not universally sold on Ford's ability to translate that production to the big leagues, though. His bat speed is average, and he has periodically struggled getting his bat to fastballs up in the zone. ... We see an average bat with a chance to grow into average game power, but there are scouts who would take the under on both," they wrote.
There should be some concern when reading that. One of the reasons why Ford has been so lauded coming up the ranks is because of his ability at the plate, where he has a career slash line of .266/.405/.428 in the minors with double-digit home runs in three out of four full seasons.
If that can't translate to the bigs -- especially his ability to be patient and draw walks while punishing mistakes in the zone -- then there could be a huge drop off in production coming in his MLB career.
Harry Ford Still Projected to Be Primary Major League Catcher
Thankfully, there were still some major positives FanGraphs noted about Ford, especially his improved defense that should have him ready to contribute in the majors as early as this year for the Nationals.
"Ford is a laser-armed catcher who, brick-by-brick, has become a major league-quality receiver. Selectivity at the dish helps him do enough to be a primary catcher," they stated as their overall evaluation, giving him a Future Grade of 50 that puts him in the average everyday player category.
HARRY FORD WALKS IT OFF AND THE MARINERS MOVE INTO A TIE FOR FIRST PLACE IN THE AL WEST WITH THE ASTROS pic.twitter.com/g3wiMEZ9yO
— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) September 12, 2025
However, the margins are slim for the youngster. His present and future grades in many of the categories like raw power, game power, hitting, running and throwing mirror each other almost exactly. And that's why his ceiling could be wind up being lower than many in the fanbase think.
"It all adds up to a 50-FV report, albeit one where there isn't a lot of wiggle room if one of the tools doesn't reach its projection, or Ford's approach buckles against better stuff. Still, if he's average on both sides of the ball, that's a good player, and he's the kind of risk Washington should be taking at this stage," FanGraphs concluded.
It will be interesting to see how Ford's career ultimately develops in the nation's capital. Because he's still so young, he still has plenty of time to prove that evaluation wrong and become an elite catcher like everyone envisioned when he was taken 12th overall in the 2021 draft.
Brad Wakai graduated from Penn State University with a degree in Journalism. While an undergrad, he worked at the student radio station covering different Penn State athletic programs like football, basketball, volleyball, soccer and other sports. Brad became the Lead Contributor for Nittany Lions Wire of Gannett Media where he continued to cover Penn State athletics. Currently, Brad is the Publisher for Washington Nationals On SI and covers multiple teams across the On SI network. He is the host of the sports podcast I Said What I Said, where he and his co-host discuss topics across the NFL, College Football, the NBA and other sports. You can follow him on Twitter: @bwakai