These Metrics Indicate Washington Nationals Young Pitcher Will Become an Impact Arm

A young Washington Nationals starting pitcher could be a breakout candidate in 2025.

Sep 13, 2024; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher DJ Herz (74) delivers a throw during the first inning of a baseball game against the Miami Marlins, at Nationals Park. | Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

A lot of attention has been given to the impressive group of young position players the Washington Nationals have compiled, and rightfully so.

There is already an All-Star amongst the midst with shortstop CJ Abrams. Left fielder James Wood made an immediate impact when he made his debut on July 1, 2024, and right fielder Dylan Crews is regarded as one of the best prospects in baseball.

While the Nationals pitchers may not have the same name recognition as their teammates in the field, they certainly aren’t lacking for talent.

Washington looks to have a future ace in MacKenzie Gore, who sandwiched a rough summer with star performances out of the gate and down the stretch to close the campaign.

Jake Irvin has proven to be a solid, reliable innings eater behind him. Veteran Trevor Williams was re-signed this offseason, and the team brought on Mike Soroka and Shinnosuke Ogasawara in free agency to add more depth to the rotation.

However, one of the players who could really help push the team forward in 2025 is DJ Herz.

Last year, he was one of the pitchers the Nationals had to call up, along with Mitchell Parker, because injuries decimated their starting rotation and they needed immediate help.

The two performed so well they held onto those spots throughout the year, unexpectedly becoming fixtures as starters.

In 19 starts, Herz went 4-9 with a 4.16 ERA across 88.2 innings. He struck out 102 batters and his advanced stats show he performed at a higher level than his raw production would indicate.

“Although his ERA+ was below average at 97, some of his other performance indicators were far stronger, including a 3.26 expected ERA, a 3.77 SIERA, a 3.71 FIP and a 27.7% strikeout rate,” wrote Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com, who believes the young Washington hurler is a breakout candidate this upcoming season to build off of a small 2024 sample size.

Earning a spot in the rotation will certainly be a challenge since there are many players to compete against.

Gore and Irving are locked into roles. Williams and Soroka were both told they would be starters. Parker will be vying for a spot along with Ogasawara, and don’t forget about Josiah Gray, Jackson Rutledge and Cade Cavalli eventually could factor into the mix.

What could help set Herz apart from his teammates?

A devastating fastball that should only get better as he hones his craft and improves the other pitches in his arsenal.

“Herz’s four-seam fastball was particularly impressive, generating a +9 run value with the third-highest whiff rate (30.5%) among starting pitchers (min. 300 swings on four-seamers) behind Ryan Pepiot and Garrett Crochet,” Harrigan added.

Only 24 years old, the talented lefty is just scratching the surface of his potential.

A strong Spring Training will cement his spot in the rotation, not only for 2025, but likely years to come as a foundational piece for the franchise on the mound.