The Orioles' Best Chances to Conquer the Yankees in a Pivotal Series

After showing up big in Tampa, here is how the O's can stay relevant in a back-and-forth wild card race when they return to Baltimore.

Jun 19, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) celebrates with first baseman Pete Alonso (25) after hitting a two-run home run in the sixth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Orioles finally return to Camden Yards after a surprisingly successful ten game trek. To the surprise of Orioles and Rays fans, the O’s left St. Petersburg with a series win, which prevented a losing trip.

With more than a month of baseball left and five other teams competing for the third-place wild card spot, the O’s will have to keep their foot on the gas for a face-off with another AL titan.

An Important Turnaround

Shane Baz last pitched in game three of the Twins series. The righty battled his command and, his velocity dipped, and was he pulled after three innings. He now faces a potentially more difficult lineup in the Yankees, (even without Aaron Judge, who is slated to return from injury in mid-September) who will look for every opportunity to get in the pitcher’s head.

The Yankees give Baz fits, dating back to his days in Tampa. New York has a 1.025 OPS and a .287 batting average against him.

To find success against this team, Baz will have to regain control over his breaking balls while working in his fastball to the speed that the Orioles signed him for. Too much of the fastball, and not enough of the knuckle curve starting in the zone and breaking out of it, will be a problem.

Right Time to Get Hot

Gunnar Henderson’s disappointing season has unfortunately become a part of the whole team’s identity. For a while, he not only couldn’t hit but also lost focus at shortstop.

Thankfully, manager Craig Albernaz moved him down in the lineup for the Rays series and the results speak for themselves.

In his first game in the five spot, Gunnar went 2-4 with a home run and a double tallying eight total bases against the Rays. He got on base twice the following game but most recently batted third going 0-3. He is batting .500 in his last five games.

Orioles fans were all in on the Gunnar Henderson-Pete Alonso duo going into the season. However, up until last week, the two were never in sync when it came to producing at the plate (this was mostly due to Gunnar’s struggles).

Along with Gunnar’s hot streak, Alonso has seen the ball in slow motion recently.

In his last five games, Alonso has 11 hits in 18 at-bats and a win probability added of around 20%. He’s displayed his usual power but also added some points to his OBP with strong contact up the middle.

Albernaz will undoubtedly look to these two to practically carry a lineup that is about to face some of the best pitching in the league.

A Look at the Bad Guys

With a 69-55 record, the Yankees sit 5.5 games behind the Rays in the AL East. They look to bounce back after losing two out three to the Blue Jays, in which they had only scored two runs in their last three games going into the series finale.

In fact, their lack of offense has done anything but contribute to their successful season. They are ranked near the bottom of the league in several major categories, including OBP, slugging percentage, and OPS. This could in part be due to injuries in key players like Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, who has been sidelined with a calf issue since April 24.

The team has more than made up for the offense with stellar pitching.

Their rotation is arguably the best in baseball with stars like Gerrit Cole and Max Fried as well as blossoming arms in Ryan Weathers and Cam Schlittler (a possible Cy Young candidate). Carlos Rodon, is on the way back and ready to face the O's (but Fried is heading back to the IL) and Clarke Schmidt are also expected to return from injury in a couple of weeks, possibly taking the spot of Will Warren.

After Baz, Chris Bassitt and Kyle Bradish will be expected to keep the Yankees at bay. O’s pitchers will have to look out for Luis Garcia Jr., a deadline addition who is batting .300 on the road this season, and Ben Rice, although he has is hitting .179 in his last 30 games. Rice does have favorable stats against Bradish with an OPS of 1.155.

Could the Orioles manage a split this week against the Yankees and with the Rays coming to Baltimore? That should be enough to keep them firmly in the Wild Card hunt.

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