5 Things That Must Happen for the Padres to Dethrone the Dodgers in the NL West

The Padres haven’t won the division since 2006, and for parts of the 2025 season, it looked like that drought would finally end. The Padres opened the year on fire, racing out to a 15–4 start that matched the best 19-game stretch in franchise history. They finally looked like a team ready to challenge the Dodgers’ long-standing grip on the NL West. San Diego held a division lead as late as August and finished with a strong 90–72 record, but the season ended in disappointment as they failed to win the division and eventually lost to the Cubs in the Wild Card round. Even so, the year felt different. It felt like the Padres were finally closing the gap on their Southern California rivals and positioning themselves for their first division title in two decades. They ultimately fell just three games short of Los Angeles, yet the season proved they have the talent to topple the Dodgers’ reign. Here’s what needs to happen for San Diego to finish the job in 2026:

1. They win the head-to-head battle against the Dodgers

Matsui Dodgers Padres Pitcher — Jun 19, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; San Diego Padres relief pitcher Yuki Matsui (1) reacts after striking out Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Dalton Rushing (68) for the final out of the ninth inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The division race ultimately came down to the head-to-head matchups between the Padres and Dodgers. San Diego rolled through the rest of the NL West, taking the season series from the Giants (10-3), Diamondbacks (8-5), and Rockies (10-3). Against Los Angeles, however, it was a different story. The Dodgers controlled the rivalry throughout the regular season, handing the Padres a 4-9 record against their Southern California rivals. Flip those results, and San Diego would have been celebrating a division title.

2. The rotation stays healthy

Joe Musgrove Padres pitcher — Oct 2, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres pitcher Joe Musgrove (44) throws during the first inning of game two in the Wildcard round for the 2024 MLB Playoffs against the Atlanta Braves at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The 2025 season was a brutal one for the Padres rotation, with multiple starters missing significant time. Most notable among them was Joe Musgrove, who was sidelined for the entire year while continuing his recovery from Tommy John surgery. If San Diego hopes to dethrone the Dodgers, its pitching staff will need far better fortune on the health front. Unfortunately, those concerns have already carried into 2026, as Yu Darvish is expected to miss the entire season, creating uncertainty about whether he will ever take the mound for the Padres again. With one of their most dependable arms already unavailable, it’s essential that the rest of the rotation avoids similar setbacks.

3. Fernando Tatis Jr. has an MVP-caliber season

Fernando Tatis Jr. Padres MVP season — Sep 26, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. (23) hits a grand slam home run during the fourth inning Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: David Frerker-Imagn Images | David Frerker-Imagn Images

Tatis announced himself as a superstar during his breakout 2021 campaign, launching 42 home runs and finishing third in NL MVP voting, appearing well on his way to becoming one of the top players in the league. His suspension and the string of injuries that followed interrupted that trajectory, but last season felt like a return to form, with Tatis looking like the dynamic, game-changing force the Padres built around. As long as he continues to hit and play at the level he showed last season, he will remain one of the most impactful players in baseball. If he can take a step forward, he’ll put himself in MVP contention and be the driving force the Padres need. It’s unlikely anyone is going to unseat Shohei Ohtani and actually capture the award, but the Padres don’t necessarily need that. If Tatis can push his way into a top-three to top-five MVP finish, it would signal an elite season and go a long way toward keeping San Diego in the division fight.

4. The young core takes a leap

Jackson Merrill San Diego Padres — Sep 21, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; San Diego Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill (3) celebrates with teammates in the dugout after scoring against the Chicago White Sox during the second inning at Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images | Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

For the Padres to reach another level in 2026, their emerging young core will need to take a step forward, starting with Jackson Merrill. The former top prospect burst onto the scene in 2024 with an All-Star campaign and a second-place finish in the NL Rookie of the Year race. His follow-up in 2025, however, was more uneven, as pitchers adjusted and the consistency that he showed his rookie year came and went. Now entering his third season, Merrill faces a pivotal year for himself and the Padres. A true third-year leap could be what pushes the Padres past the Dodgers. If Merrill and the rest of San Diego’s young core take that next step, the ceiling for this team rises dramatically.

5. Mason Miller becomes the best closer in baseball

Mason Millers Padres closer — Sep 9, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres relief pitcher Mason Miller (22) celebrates after striking out a batter during the eighth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Mason Miller has already established himself as one of the premier closers in baseball. He earned an All-Star selection with Oakland in 2024 and followed it with another dominant campaign in 2025, highlighted by an immaculate inning on September 3. Over the season, he appeared in 60 games, posting a 2.63 ERA with 22 saves, 104 strikeouts in 61.2 innings, and a 0.91 WHIP. Numbers that confirmed his status as an elite late-game weapon. His arrival in San Diego at the deadline last season proved to be one of the most impactful moves the Padres have made in recent memory, giving them a true shutdown arm in the bullpen. The Dodgers, however, answered with a blockbuster move of their own by acquiring three-time Reliever of the Year Edwin Díaz from the Mets this offseason. If the Padres are going to finish ahead of Los Angeles, a major factor will be Miller cementing himself as the best closer in the league.

The challenge in front of the Padres is enormous and the road only got tougher this winter. The Dodgers have improved their World Series–winning roster with massive additions in Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz, while also expecting better health after battling injuries of their own in 2025. Los Angeles isn’t going anywhere, and the margin for error in the NL West remains razor thin. For San Diego to finally end the drought and capture its first division title since 2006, nearly everything on this list will have to come to fruition. Even then, it may require midseason reinforcements and a few breaks along the way. Defeating the Dodgers leaves little room for error, and in 2026 the Padres will need to deliver a nearly flawless season to make it happen.