How One Padres Arm Gives the Front Office More Rotation Flexibility

The San Diego Padres have one of the most unique pitchers in baseball in right-hander Randy Vásquez. The former Yankees prospect burst onto the scene last year, putting together the best season of his career in over 133.2 innings.

He finished with a 3.84 ERA and a 4.85 FIP while benefiting from a .261 BABIP allowed. He also provided much-needed stability, becoming one of just three Padres pitchers to hit the 100-inning mark.

Despite the solid campaign at age 26, Vásquez’s spot in the rotation is far from guaranteed entering spring training. He currently projects as the No. 4 starter, slotting in ahead of left-hander J.P. Sears, but with general manager A.J. Preller actively engaged in discussions with multiple pitchers, that role is in jeopardy.

The concern lies in Vásquez’s expected metrics. While his production and durability are positives, projections show a lot of good fortune. His expected numbers included a 5.38 xERA and 5.51 xFIP, paired with a concerning 13.7% strikeout rate.

For most pitchers, those metrics would raise significant red flags, but there’s reason to believe Vásquez can consistently outperform his projections. Models like FanGraphs and Statcast heavily favor pitchers with high strikeout rates and elite velocity. As a six-pitch, low-velocity sinkerballer who forces contact, Vásquez is unlikely to ever post impressive “expected” stats relative to his actual production.

Vasquez can instead successfully rely on craftyness and his clutch gene to navigate through lineups.

In 2025, his fastballs ranked among the most effective in the league. His four-seam fastball posted a +7 Statcast run value with a 21% usage rate, while his sinker finished at +9 with 19.1% usage. That level of production is impressive for a pitcher whose fastballs averaged just 93.3 mph (32nd percentile).

Vásquez also consistently utilizes four different off-speed pitches: a cutter (25% usage), sweeper (13.1%), curveball (12.8%) and changeup (6.9%). None are dominant on their own, but the depth of his arsenal allows him to adjust on the fly. Working with catcher Freddy Fermin, that flexibility helped him strand 77.4% of baserunners in 2025.

Aug 2, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Randy Vasquez (98) throws to first base for an out during the fourth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Petco Park. | David Frerker-Imagn Images

While many starters with only one or two reliable secondary pitches need their best stuff every outing, Vásquez can lean on whichever pitch is working that day.

In fact, there’s actually a path for Vasquez to improve in 2026. His +9 sinker ranked just third among his pitches in usage, and increasing its frequency could lead to even better results.

He also has room to develop his curveball. Despite a -4 run value last season, it ranked in the top three percentiles in spin rate. The movement is there, but harnessing it will require work with pitching coach Ruben Niebla.

If the Padres ultimately pursue a high-end starting pitcher via trade, it would likely come at the expense of current ace Nick Pivetta, as Preller searches for a more affordable rotation anchor than the $50-plus million still owed to Pivetta.

Should San Diego be forced into a talent-for-talent deal to bolster the rotation, they can trust Vásquez to stabilize the back end of the staff.