Padres Predicted to Finish 4th in NL West in Major Disappointment

The San Diego Padres are predicted to finish fourth in the National League West this season by one MLB insider.

The Friars are in baseball's best division, which includes the back-to-back World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies.

Thus, MLB.com's Will Leitch believes the Padres will miss the playoffs entirely in 2026, earning a fourth place finish in the division.

Here's how Leitch predicts the NL West rankings to be:

1. Dodgers
2. Giants (Wild Card)
3. Diamondbacks
4. Padres
5. Rockies

"No sweat for the Dodgers, who will win this division by far more than the three games they won it by last year. The scramble is between the next three teams. The Padres have high-end talent but almost no depth and not many resources left to get them some, and the Diamondbacks went from having too many starting pitchers to not nearly enough," Leitch writes.

"That leaves me as the believer in the Giants, who have just enough pieces on this roster to think they might, under new manager Tony Vitello, add up to something surprising. As for the Rockies? Well, they’ve made some changes finally. That’s a start."

The Padres have two of the biggest stars in baseball in Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. One player that will need to step up in 2026 is Jackson Merrill, who is coming off a down year.

Merrill had a historic rookie season, earning his first All-Star appearance and a Silver Slugger award at just 21 years old.

In 2024, Merrill hit .292 with 24 home runs, 90 RBIs and 16 steals, finishing second in NL Rookie of the Year voting. Last season, after signing a nine-year, $135 million extension, he hit .264 with 16 home runs, 67 RBIs and an OPS over 50 points lower than his 2024 total.

Aside from the lineup, the Padres starting rotation is already depleted given the setback Joe Musgrove suffered this spring. The two staples of the group, Nick Pivetta and Michael King, will have to carry the load for the first part of the season as the Padres patiently await Musgrove's return. The Padres are hoping for big years from Walker Buehler and/or Germán Márquez.

At this point, it doesn't look like president of baseball operations A.J. Preller will make a move before Opening Day, but that doesn't mean he can't orchestrate a blockbuster trade ahead of the deadline in August, as he tends to do.

What Moves Did Padres Make at Trade Deadline in 2025?

Leitch noted the Padres don't have many resources to get more depth and that's largely because of the team's wild trade deadline last summer.

Preller parted ways with several of the team's best prospects in order to acquire more talent down the stretch, including Ramón Laureano, Ryan O'Hearn, Freddy Fermin and Mason MIller. While those moves certainly gave the Padres a much-needed boost, the team fell short of the ultimate goal.

Nevertheless, many of last year's acquisitions are still with the team, and looking to help get them over the hump once again.

While the Padres are coming off a Wild Card exit, the team's roster is somewhat depleted in terms of depth. However, Preller never fails to make the big move, and could strike at some point this year to put his team in position to make another playoff run.

The Padres have made the postseason in four of the last six seasons. The team has every intention of making that five out of seven this year.