One Stat Helps Explain Why the Padres Are Doing More With Less

The Padres' success with runners in scoring position, while fickle, has allowed them to maximize their best run-scoring opportunities

May 8, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; San Diego Padres catcher Luis Campusano (12) celebrates with teammate Jake Cronenworth. | Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The Padres' dropoff from their 82-win season of 2023 was not unforeseeable. Their Opening Day payroll of $164.5 million is $80 million less than it was a year ago. Their pitching staff, younger and less proven than last year's, is so far producing a 4.12 ERA — 18th in Major League Baseball through Thursday.

Yet the Padres have managed to hang around at 22-24 despite their relative lack of depth, unproven talent, and surprisingly slow starts from superstars Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado.

The one thing they're doing better than they did a year ago? Driving in runners in scoring position.

Last year the Padres hit .241 in those critical situations, 26th in MLB. This year that average is up to .258, and their 115 WRC+ with runners in scoring position is 12th in MLB, per FanGraphs. Their 144 RBIs ranks ninth.

While popularly believed to be a skill, the fickle nature of situational hitting suggests luck is more of a factor than people believe. The Padres were hitting .271 with runners in scoring position through their first 40 games of the season. Then they went 3 for 23 in suffering a three-game sweep against the Colorado Rockies.

But if the first quarter of the 2024 season has offered any positives, it's the blueprint for the Padres to move forward with a winning record despite their obvious shortcomings. Last year the Padres finished with a .241 batting average with runners in scoring position, 26th in MLB.

By improving this one stat, the Padres can make the most of their opportunities and hopefully hang around the National League playoff picture just as long as they did in 2023 — if not longer.