MLB Panic Meter: Analyzing Three Expected Contenders’ Early Struggles

The baseball season is young, and most of what has happened so far isn’t real—except for what is. With 10 days’ worth of games in the scorebook, several fan bases have begun panicking about their teams’ results thus far. What follows is an attempt to determine who is right to worry.

Blue Jays

Toronto hasn’t actually played terribly so far—save for Monday’s 14–2 home loss to the Dodgers—though you’d like to see more sustained offense. The Blue Jays are 4–6, and entering Monday boasted the third best pitching staff and the ninth best lineup in the sport by WAR.

Their problem is that they’ve suffered the most significant injury of the young season: the loss of catcher Alejandro Kirk, who broke and dislocated his left thumb catching a foul tip on Friday. (The Dodgers are surely not thrilled that shortstop Mookie Betts went down with an oblique strain on Saturday, but they play in a much softer division, and they have the depth to absorb his absence.) Doctors have yet to determine how much time Kirk will miss, but depending on the extent of the injury, the team could be looking at six weeks. That’s a problem, especially in the beastly American League East, because Kirk is perhaps the most important Blue Jay: a good-hitting catcher who was the second-most valuable defensive player in the sport last year. He had already shepherded the staff to a record 50 strikeouts in its first three games of the season, against the A’s. With five starting pitchers (José Berríos, Shane Bieber, Bowden Francis, Cody Ponce and Trey Yesavage) on the injured list, the team will need a steady hand to guide their replacements.

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At least for now, that won’t be Kirk. Thirty-five-year-old backup Tyler Heineman will take over, and on Saturday the Blue Jays called up glove-first 25-year-old Brandon Valenzuela, whom they acquired from the Padres at the 2025 trade deadline for infielder Will Wagner. Those two probably can’t get the ship moving faster, but they can keep it afloat.

VERDICT: Don’t feel too blue

Padres

Beating up on the Red Sox this weekend helped, but this has been a lousy 10 days for Padres fans. Ace Joe Musgrove, who had hoped to break camp with the team in his return from Tommy John surgery, was shut down from throwing early last month and has just resumed playing catch. No. 4 pitcher Walker Buehler has a 9.45 ERA. The ostensibly fearsome Padres lineup has still only hit five home runs this season, more than only the Giants (four) among teams and tied with three players. Slam Diego this is not: By WAR, this has been the worst position player group in the sport. The bullpen has been good, but they haven’t had many leads to protect.

“It’s one-thirtieth of the season. We’ve got twenty-nine-thirtieths to go. I’m excited for those twenty-nine-thirtieths,” manager Craig Stammen told reporters last week after the Padres’ fourth loss brought them to 2–4.

And indeed, it’s hard to imagine that a lineup that includes Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado will continue to look so lost. Monday’s 5–0 win over the Pirates put the Padres back at .500. Unfortunately, that lineup is the fourth oldest in the sport, and at some point the slumps will become harder to snap. And when you share a division with the Dodgers, you’re probably looking at a wild card as your best-case scenario, which means a lot less margin for error. The Padres need some margin for error.

VERDICT: Father Time comes for us all

Red Sox

Right fielder Wilyer Abreu is the best player in baseball right now. These days, that’s about the only bright spot for Boston, which opened the season 2–8, tied for the worst start in franchise history.

Start with the lineup, where the veterans aren’t performing: Shortstop Trevor Story is hitting .130, is striking out 37% of the time and has yet to work a walk. DH Jarren Duran is hitting .200 and has yet to hit a home run. The newcomers aren’t performing: First baseman Willson Contreras was batting .161 until going 3-for-3 Monday, yet still wasn’t happy afterward. Third baseman Caleb Durbin, traded from the Brewers for pitcher Kyle Harrison—who looks rejuvenated there—doubled his season hit total Monday from two to four and is slashing an abysmal .125/.176/.156. And the kids aren’t performing: Left fielder Roman Anthony is striking out at a 30% clip, second baseman Marcelo Mayer at 35%.

“This is unacceptable,” Anthony told reporters on Sunday, after the offense finally scraped together six runs only for the biggest offseason acquisition, $130 million lefty Ranger Suárez, to give up the lead.

And that brings us to the worst part: The Red Sox hitters are lapping the Red Sox pitchers. The rotation, which was supposed to be a bulwark, has instead, according to Baseball Reference, been the least valuable unit in the sport. Only twice this year has a Red Sox starter completed six innings. Suárez has an 8.64 ERA. Even ace Garrett Crochet gave up five runs in his most recent outing. Reliever Johan Oviedo, who looked great this spring, hit the injured list Sunday with a dreaded right elbow strain.

Since almost everyone is playing below his ability, chances are these players will start improving. But they can’t unlose those eight games, the Yankees look great and the Red Sox’ playoff odds have already tumbled nearly 25 percentage points, according to FanGraphs. Their current series against the Brewers, who have baseball’s best record, is happening at the exact wrong time.

VERDICT: Red alert

Blue Jays

Padres

Red Sox

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