Phillies Labeled as Slight Underdogs Ahead of NLDS Matchup Against Dodgers, According to FanGraphs Analytics

Despite being the second seed in the National League, one major outlet gives Phillies uphill battle versus Dodgers

May 26, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; A detailed view of a Philadelphia Phillies hat and glove on the bench against the Atlanta Braves in the seventh inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

On the eve of the first game in the 2025 NLDS between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers, early analytical models give the NL West champions the slight edge.

The Dodgers easily rolled through the Cincinnati Reds in the Wild Card series, and are still projected by many to, at the very least, make a legitimate run at defending their World Series title. The Phillies, on the other hand, are looking to conquer the demons from their previous three postseason berths, coming up short of the ultimate goal in heartbreaking fashion each time.

As starters are being announced and rosters finalized, popular analytics organization FanGraphs has published its final series projection for the Phillies-Dodgers matchup.

The reigning champions, although being the lower seed entering October, are listed as the early favorites with a 52.4% chance to win the best-of-five series, as opposed to the Phillies' 47.6% chance. In a series that has no consensus team with the upper hand, the tight projections are far from a surprise.

On paper, the series is as much of a toss-up as any, featuring two elite top-to-bottom rosters and no substantial indication of which team is truly better.

FanGraphs has also given the Phillies the fourth-highest odds to win the World Series, behind the New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, and the Dodgers, in that order.

Fangraphs World Series odds heading into the Division Series:

1. Dodgers 24.0%
2. Mariners 17.8%
3. Yankees 15.5%
4. Phillies 14.2%
5. Blue Jays 9.1%
6. Cubs 7.1%
7. Brewers 6.4%
8. Tigers 5.9%

Anyone stand out to you?

— MLB Deadline News (@MLBDeadlineNews) October 3, 2025

More Series Projections

Aside from the overall projection for the Dodgers to win the series, FanGraphs also projects the chances of each individual outcome of the series.

According to their model, a series ending in four games with Los Angeles moving on is the most probable result at 20.0%. Interestingly enough, the second most likely outcome is the Phillies taking the series in five games, at 19.5%, despite being listed as underdogs. The following chances, in order of likelihood, are Philadelphia winning in four games (17.6), the Dodgers winning in three games (14.4), and the least likely option at 10.4% is the Phillies sweeping the series.

Phillies/Dodgers NLDS Series Outcome Projection, according to Fangraphs.

Odds to win the series:

Dodgers 52.4%
Phillies 47.6

Dodgers in 3: 14.4%
Dodgers in 4: 20.0%
Dodgers in 5: 18.0%
Phillies in 3: 10.4%
Phillies in 4: 17.6%
Phillies in 5: 19.5% pic.twitter.com/Sx1WIYSIqw

— Phillies Tailgate (@PhilsTailgate) October 3, 2025

Examining the evolution of the projections will be an intriguing storyline as the series progresses, and Saturday's highly anticipated Game 1 should have a major influence on the early changes to their model's results.

It goes without saying, however, that analytics and projections are only as meaningful as the data they are based on. With the star power both teams possess and the unpredictability of the playoffs, the winner of said series can only be decided on the field.