Why Aaron Nola Is Pitching for Three Different Countries in WBC Start Tonight

It seemed in the days leading up to his start that Aaron Nola would be pitching to save Italy in the World Baseball Classic on Wednesday night.

He'll actually be pitching to save two countries.

Team USA is shockingly on the brink of being eliminated from the WBC in pool play and no longer controls its own destiny.

The elimination scenarios

USA went 3-1 in the first round with an upset loss to Italy on Tuesday.

Italy is 3-0. Mexico is 2-1. If Italy wins on Wednesday, Italy wins Pool B and the USA advances as the runner-up.

If Mexico wins, however, it would make all three teams 3-1 and the U.S. could find itself out of the tournament. Here are the three scenarios for Wednesday's game:

• If Italy beats Mexico, Italy wins Pool B and USA is the runner-up. Mexico would be eliminated.

• If Mexico beats Italy and scores at least five runs, Mexico and USA advance and Italy would be eliminated.

• If Mexico beats Italy but scores four runs or fewer, Mexico and Italy advance and Team USA would be eliminated.

The tiebreaker math

Why are runs allowed a factor? Because if all three teams are 3-1, the head-to-head tiebreaker would no longer apply. The rules would move to the next tiebreaker, which is fewest runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in the games in that round between the teams tied.

That may sound like a mouthful so to put it in simpler terms: The applicable tiebreaker to these three teams, if Mexico beats Italy, will be runs allowed in games against the other two opponents. The two teams among the three with the lowest runs allowed ratio would advance.

USA allowed 11 runs total to Mexico and Italy while recording 54 defensive outs (18 innings). Thus, they're at 0.204.

If Italy allows five runs or more to Mexico on Wednesday and loses, Italy's runs allowed ratio would be no lower than 0.216, thus placing it behind USA.

However, if Italy allows four runs or fewer to Mexico on Wednesday and loses, Italy's runs allowed ratio would be 0.196 or lower, placing it ahead of USA. And under that scenario, Mexico would have the lowest runs allowed ratio of the three teams, meaning Mexico would finish first, Italy second and USA third.

No math will be involved if Italy simply beats Mexico on Wednesday. The three-way tiebreaker comes into effect only if Italy loses.

Really, the most important thing for Team USA is that Italy scores four runs against Mexico. It would mean that Italy either wins and eliminates Mexico, or that Mexico requires at least five runs in a win, which would eliminate Italy.

USA's late barrage mattered

Manager Francisco Cervelli saved his best starting pitcher, Aaron Nola, for the last game of pool play. Italy started former Phillie and 34-year-old MLB vet Michael Lorenzen against the U.S. on Tuesday and Lorenzen delivered with 4⅔ scoreless innings.

Italy jumped out to an eight-run lead, but the U.S. clawed back over the final four innings to lose 8-6. This actually mattered, because if the Americans just tucked their tails and lost 8-0 or 8-2, it would have drastically lowered Italy's runs allowed ratio and made USA's path to winning a tiebreaker over Italy very difficult.

All eyes on Nola

Nola's most recent outing was March 4 for the Phillies against Team Canada in a WBC warm-up game. He threw 37 pitches that afternoon, striking out four and allowing one baserunner over three scoreless innings. Most impressively and most importantly, his fastball maxed out at 93.9 mph, a velocity he didn't reach last season until May 3.

Nola has talked this spring about showing up to camp sharper after long-tossing during the offseason. He'd stayed away from it in the past because of hefty annual workloads but that wasn't a factor after he missed 15 starts in 2025 with ankle and rib injuries.

Exactly a week will have passed since Nola's last start. The limit in pool play is 65 pitches, so it is unlikely he goes beyond four innings. That limit rises to 80 in the quarterfinals and 95 in the semifinals and finals.

In a normal spring, Nola would be gearing up for his third or fourth Grapefruit League start. Instead, he'll essentially be pitching with the stakes of October.