Phillies Star Kyle Schwarber's Biggest Weakness Could Prevent Massive Contract

Whether it's the Philadelphia Phillies or someone else, this stat may keep teams from being willing to pay Kyle Schwarber.

Oct 8, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber (12) congratulated in the dugout after hitting a solo home run in the fourth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers of game three of the NLDS during the 2025 MLB playoffs at Dodger Stadium. | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The Philadelphia Phillies head into the offseason with some serious questions looming, but none bigger than what is going to happen with their superstar designated hitter.

Following a career season for Kyle Schwarber, the Phillies are at a crossroads as they must decide whether or not they want to rebuild after falling short again or try to bring back many of the same guys.

The looming decision on Schwarber will define the offseason, and most expect him to return. One major statistical flaw though should have Philadelphia questioning whether or not they really want to spend what it takes to bring him back.

As pointed out by Mark Feinsand of MLB.com in a recent article, the biggest reason to be concerned about possibly handing over a massive number to Schwarber is his production against breaking balls.

Schwarber Struggled Mightily Against Breaking Balls During Huge Season

Sep 20, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Kyle Schwarber (12) celebrates after scoring a run against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning at Chase Field. | Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

"It’s difficult to find many flaws in Schwarber’s performance at the plate last season, but the slugger’s production against breaking balls could serve as a potential red flag and be a sign of how pitchers might approach him moving forward," Feinsand wrote. "Schwarber hit only .158 with a .378 slugging percentage against breaking balls, a stark drop from his numbers against them in 2024 (.243/.497). Schwarber also ranked in the bottom five percent of the league in whiff percentage and in the 11th percent in strikeout percentage, though that was a small price to pay for his massive production."

As Feinsand mentions towards the end of the point, any serious criticism of Schwarber's 2025 season is just nitpicking given what he was able to do from a power and getting on base standpoint, but it should be noted.

Teams pay players for future production, not what they've just done, and there's no question Schwarber will see more breaking balls next season as teams try to find a way to pitch to him this offseason.

Should Phillies Be Discouraged by Breaking Ball Numbers?

Sep 14, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber (12) reacts after hitting a home run against the Kansas City Royals in the first inning at Citizens Bank Park. | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

Schwarber was absolutely sensational this season with a slash line of .240/.365/.563, bashing a National League leading 56 home runs and a big league leading 132 RBI while playing in every single game.

Collecting a 4.7 bWAR despite playing virtually no defense is a near impossible feat, and Schwarber appeared to be hitting his stride as an offensive player at the age of 32. All that being said, Philadelphia can't afford a major mistake this offseason, and if those numbers drop off a cliff next year, giving him the kind of deal he has earned could blow up in their face.

At the very least, Schwarber's numbers against breaking balls are something that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski needs to look into and see whether it's a trend or an aberration.

If the Phillies are worried that those numbers could drop off in a significant way as a result, they will be better off looking elsewhere this offseason when it comes to building a lineup for next year to hopefully get over that World Series hump.