The Timeline for Zack Wheeler After His First Rehab Start for Phillies

Zack Wheeler was set for three innings and/or 45-50 pitches in the first start of his minor-league rehab assignment on Saturday with Triple-A Lehigh Valley, and he may not need a ton more tuning up from there.

Wheeler's second rehab start will come Friday, April 3 with the IronPigs in Durham, and his third will come the following week with Double-A Reading, according to MLB.com.

There is no specific schedule for Wheeler beyond that. The third start would not come until at least April 8, meaning that if he is activated by the Phillies after three starts, the earliest his major-league season debut could come is April 13. If he makes a fourth rehab start, the earliest he could return is April 18.

With Wheeler slated for three innings in his first rehab start, he will likely expand to four the next time and five thereafter. The fourth start of a ramp-up would be closer to six innings, so the thinking might be why waste those six innings at Triple-A if they could just come in the majors?

Target date?

The Phillies are home from April 9-19 for a nine-game homestand against the Diamondbacks, Cubs and Braves. That could be the week of Wheeler's return. If not, he could join them the following week on the road at Wrigley Field and in Atlanta.

This is far earlier than the initial expectations of when Wheeler could rejoin the Phillies' rotation. He underwent surgery last September 23 and had a rib removed to address venous thoracic outlet syndrome. He missed the Phillies' final 40 games last season and the NLDS, but he showed up to camp feeling healthy and strong, threw five bullpen sessions, advanced to pitching live batting practice and now the rehab assignment.

The rehab clock for pitchers lasts a maximum of 30 days but Wheeler might not need nearly that much time. When he returns, if the rotation is healthy, the path of least resistance is temporarily using a six-man rotation and then shifting Taijuan Walker to the bullpen. The Phillies will want to keep rookie Andrew Painter's innings in a manageable place after he set a career-high last year with 118, but that won't be a concern in mid-April.

Walker shifted back and forth from rotation to bullpen last season and did an admirable job both places with a 4.25 ERA as a starter and a 3.15 ERA in 13 relief appearances.

Any drop-off?

There's no reason to expect Wheeler to be anything other than one of the best pitchers in baseball upon his return. He was pitching better when his season ended, with the highest strikeout rate and lowest WHIP of his career. And it's not as if he is coming back from a major arm injury.

Wheeler's velocity will be worth tracking during his rehab assignment as it is for any pitcher, but even if he's at 94 mph initially rather than 96, his 94-95 is closer to 97-98 the way it explodes on hitters late.