One Major Advantage Phillies Could Have Over Mets This Season

Without Ranger Suarez, without Zack Wheeler for at least the majority of April and with the unknowns surrounding Aaron Nola after a dismal season, the Phillies' 2026 starting rotation may not be as much of a strength as it's been overall during the team's four-year run of contending.

The bullpen, though, has a chance to be the team's best under manager Rob Thomson. The Phillies have spent most of the offseason talking about how excited they are by the talent and depth of their relief corps. And it's hard not to notice the difference in expectation and tone compared to the bullpen of their main division rival, the Mets.

For the Phillies, a major part of the optimism comes from the fact that it will be their first full season with Jhoan Duran, one of the sport's most overpowering closers. This is as confident as the Phillies have been in their closer since at least Jonathan Papelbon from 2012-15, a period when they weren't contending and the ninth-inning man was not as important.

The bridge to the 9th

It's not just Duran, though. The Phillies added hard-throwing right-handed setup man Brad Keller on a two-year, $22 million contract.

They have Jose Alvarado, who has experienced highs and lows but overall owns a 3.25 ERA since 2022 with 240 strikeouts in 180 innings.

Orion Kerkering, with his career 2.79 ERA and 10.4 K/9, is a strong option as the third right-hander in a bullpen.

Lefty Tanner Banks has been very reliable in 91 appearances as a Phillie, and last season limited lefties far more than ever before. They hit just .175/.213/.243 off Banks in 2025 compared to .227/.282/.359 in his three prior major-league seasons.

Two other newcomers

The sixth bullpen lock appears to be right-hander Jonathan Bowlan, acquired from the Kansas City Royals in December for Matt Strahm. Bowlan has a deep arsenal of five pitches but uses mostly his 96 mph fastball and slider. Here's a sample of how good the mix can look.

Another arm who's drawn attention early in camp is submarining left-hander Kyle Backhus, who was acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks in December for Class A outfielder Avery Owusu-Asiedu. Backhus is one of 10 to 12 candidates for the Phillies' final two bullpen jobs and his funkiness and optionality should give him a leg up.

"I'm very excited," Thomson told reporters in Clearwater this week. "Keller, Bowlan and Backhus, and you return Kerkering, Alvarado and Banks. Then you look around the camp and there's all these NRI guys running around that have really good stuff that throw strikes. I think it's probably the best group of arms we've had here since I've been here, as a whole."

These have been the Phillies' bullpen ERAs in Thomson's four years as manager:

Year	ERA	MLB Rank
2025	4.27	20th
2024	3.94	14th
2023	3.58	7th
2022	4.27	23rd

Clearer roles

Bullpen management becomes much easier for a manager when he can work backwards. Duran is the obvious closer, there will be no mixing and matching. One less thing to worry about.

Keller and Alvarado will be the right-left setup duo, with Kerkering and Banks the next-most-important righty and lefty in terms of leverage.

You can envision scenarios, for example, where the Phillies starter exits after 5⅔ innings and three or four relievers from the group of Duran, Keller, Alvarado, Kerkering and Banks finish it off. They all won't be available every night through the course of a 162-game season and that's why it's so crucial to have more than two or three relievers you trust.

Meanwhile in New York ...

We all know how important bullpens are. A bad one can nullify strengths all over the roster. The Mets, for example, did a lot this offseason, adding Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, Luis Robert Jr. and Freddy Peralta, but the bullpen has a chance to be their downfall. They lost Edwin Diaz and are relying on new closer Devin Williams, who's been shaky since late 2024. Their most established setup man is Luke Weaver, who has had only one very good year, 2024.

The rest of the Mets' projected Opening Day bullpen is Brooks Raley, Luis Garcia, Huascar Brazoban, Bryan Hudson and Tobias Myers.

Different looks

An important aspect of the way the Phils have tried to build this bullpen is diversity.

Duran's fastball averages 100 mph, and he and Keller have different secondary out-pitches.

Alvarado, Banks and Backhus are three completely different lefties in terms of velo, stuff and delivery.

Kerkering may have the best slider of them all.

The different looks go a long way in terms of disrupting timing and keeping hitters off balance. When it comes to the bullpens, advantage Phillies — at least on paper.