Phillies Need Andrew Painter To Avoid Repeating History of Another Top Prospect

Andrew Painter has struggled out of the gate with the Philadelphia Phillies, similarly to another former top pitching prospect.

Andrew Painter starts walking back to the dugout against the Miami Marlins during the fifth the game at loanDepot Park. | Rhona Wise-Imagn Images

A few years back, the Philadelphia Phillies had quite the prospect pitching his way through the minor leagues. Spencer Howard, a second-round pick of the team back in 2017, was considered by many the top pitching prospect in the Phillies system.

Starting in 2019, Howard was slotted as a top-five prospect in the Philadelphia organization and went on to be ranked the No. 1 prospect in 2021. 

Howard would go on to make his professional debut with the Phillies on Aug. 9, 2020. He showed flashes of what he could be with his fastball and off-speed pitches, but he never could quite toe the mark as he finished with an ERA of 5.92 in his six starts. 

In the following season, Howard would go on to make seven starts, but still couldn’t find a groove and eventually ended up being traded to the Texas Rangers.

Spencer Howard never lived up to prospect hype

Jul 26, 2021; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Spencer Howard (48) follows through on pitch during the first inning against the Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park. | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

Flash forward to 2026, another highly touted pitching prospect is struggling out of the gate for the Major League ballclub: Andrew Painter.

Is Painter heading down the same road as his fellow top Philadelphia pitching prospect, or are we being too harsh?

Andrew Painter’s big league stint

May 7, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Andrew Painter (24) throws a pitch during the fourth inning against the Athletics at Citizens Bank Park. | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Painter has had quite the beginning of his professional career, to say the least. Back in July of 2023, he underwent Tommy John surgery after sustaining an elbow injury during a spring training game.

Due to recovering from the operation, Painter would miss action in 2023 and into 2024, but would finally return to the mound in late 2024 during the Arizona Fall League.

Painter, in those starts, would dominate as he took home Pitcher of the Year honors for the AFL. Building off the momentum of that, Painter then headed to Triple-A Lehigh Valley to pitch for the Iron Pigs in 2025, in which he finished a full season of pitching with an ERA of 5.40 in his 22 starts.

The star prospect would then pitch for the Phillies in 2026 during spring training and turn some heads with an ERA of 2.31 over his 11.2 innings pitched. A small sample size, but it landed him on the big league club.

Now, as of May 12, Painter has made six starts, and in his last five outings, he has surrendered 20 earned runs, 31 hits and six home runs.

A critical piece in Painter’s lack of luster beginning to his Major League career has been the dip in velocity on his fastball. 

Coming through the minors, his fastball was what made him stand out as the 6-foot-7 pitcher would heave 99 mph pitches with ease. Alas, since the Tommy John surgery, the velocity has dipped down to 96 mph, which is impressive, but it's the league average for right-handers.

Hitters that are facing Painter and his fastball are hitting .373, but are not having success against Painter’s offspeeds. Against his curveball, batters are hitting .188 and against his splitter, .176.

Painter, after an outing, stated, “I think I’m throwing pretty predictable pitches and they’re obviously seeing it well.”

Painter has good stuff, but it’s all about finding the right mix.

Comparing him to a legend

National League pitcher Cole Hamels of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch during the seventh inning of the 2012 All-Star Game at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri on July 10, 2012. | H. Darr Beiser / USA TODAY NETWORK

While a lot of people are being critical of Painter, others make the argument that Phillies legend Cole Hamels also struggled mightily in his first few starts. The former ace, across his first seven starts, gave up 23 earned runs, 20 walks, and an ERA around 4.83 in 37.2 innings pitched.

Hamels struggled, and now he is a legend in Philadelphia. It is still very early to judge Painter, but the signs are showing that he needs to make some adjustments to his pitch mix.

Patience is going to be key for Painter’s development to unlock the true potential that we saw from him as a teenager.

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