USATSI_16463123 — © Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Do the 2022 Phillies Have a Better Offense than the 2008 Lineup?

With the additions of Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, the Philadelphia Phillies have their best offense in years, but is it better than 2008?

Author:
Ben Silver
Mar 20, 2022 7:30 PM EDT

The 2008 World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies hit a National League leading 214 home runs. They were the second most productive offense in the league that year, scoring 799 runs over the course of the season, averaging 4.9 runs per game.

The current iteration of the Phillies have added power bats Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. The 2022 Phillies look to be the most offensively powered version of the ballclub since 2008, but which lineup is better?

To determine that, we’ll compare each position between the two clubs and use analytics to take a big picture look on an organizational scheme. Each year will be given a score of zero to three to determine whether the comparison is a push, one player has a slight edge, an edge, or a significant edge over their 2008 or 2022 counterpart.

Catcher:

USATSI_16833994 — © Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

J.T. Realmuto (2021: .263/.343/.439) vs. Carlos Ruiz (2008: .219/.320/.300)

Obviously Realmuto is a far superior offensive player to Ruiz. Even on defense, Realmuto might have a slight edge. But just how much more valuable is Realmuto to the Phillies than Ruiz?

In 2021, Realmuto was worth seven rBAT (how many runs the player was better than league average as a hitter), while Ruiz was worth -17, Realmuto’s OPS+ was 110 while Ruiz’s was a pitiful 63. Ruiz provided little to no value through his baserunning while Realmuto is one of baseball’s speediest catchers.

All of this also fails to take into account that Realmuto had a down year in 2021, his OPS from 2018 to 2020 was an even more impressive .825 compared to .780 in 2021.

Realmuto has a significant edge over Ruiz, score three to the 2022 Phillies.

First Base:

USATSI_3017456 — © Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Rhys Hoskins (2021: .247/.334/.530, 27HR) vs. Ryan Howard (2008: .251/.339/.543, 48HR)

The comparison between Hoskins and Howard is perhaps one of the closest between the two clubs. While Howard was one of the NL’s best hitters in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2009, he had a down year in 2008. On May 20, his slash line was .183/.289/.396.

Of course, Howard slugged his way to one of the best second halves in Phillies history in 2008, but a slow start muddied his year-end statistics. For the year, baseball-reference gives him 15 rBAT, his lowest full season total pre-Achilles tear.

Hoskins’ 2021 was consistent with his career stats. What the Phillies got from their first baseman last year is likely what they can expect for years to come. His OPS in 2021 was .864 and his career OPS is .862.

Even Hoskins’ OPS+ outshines Howards’ in 2008. Howard put up 125 OPS+ that year while Hoskins’ was 129 in 2021 and 126 for his career. In 2021 Hoskins had 19 rBAT in just 443 plate appearances, four more than Howard created over 700 plate appearances over 162 games.

Even though Hoskins does have a slight edge in most advanced metrics, he’ll never match Howard’s power numbers. Compared to Howard’s towering peak, Hoskins' best season is no more than a molehill, but comparing Hoskins’ career with Howard’s 2008 is a push.

Neither 2008 nor 2022 gains a score.

Second Base:

USATSI_3414236 — © Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Jean Segura (2021: .290/.348/.436 14HR) vs. Chase Utley (2008: .292/.380/.535 33HR)

Utley is the best second baseman in Phillies history and 2008 was his best year. Segura has little to no chance at coming close to his offensive contributions in 2022.

However, Segura’s offensive output is still respectable. His OPS+ in 2022 is 111 to Utley’s 136 in 2008. While Utley led the 2008 lineup with 30 rBAT, Segura placed third on the team in 2021 with 10.

There’s not much more to say. Utley is clearly the superior offensive player to Segura, but their second baseman in 2022 certainly won’t lose the Phillies any runs.

Utley has a significant edge over Segura, score three to the 2008 Phillies.

Third Base:

USATSI_16530240 — © Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Alec Bohm (2021: .247/.305/.342) vs. Pedro Feliz (2008: .249/.302/.402)

As weak as Bohm’s 2021 showing was, his hitting is still comparable to Feliz’s.

Bohm was almost unbelievably bad in 2021, and it’s hard to imagine the Phillies giving him as many chances as they did in 2021 if he doesn’t improve. Thus Bohm’s career slashline of .274/.333/.383 is what we’ll use to compare him with Feliz.

That OPS of .717 works out to an OPS+ of 94 while Feliz’s OPS+ is 82. He was worth -10 rBAT in 2008 while Bohm had -2 rBAT since his debut.

The slight edge goes to Bohm, though Feliz is clearly the better third baseman almost entirely on defense alone, score one for the 2022 Phillies.

Shortstop:

USATSI_2989411 — © Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Didi Gregorius (2021: .209/.270/.370) vs Jimmy Rollins (2008: .277/.349/.437)

The value from shortstop is particularly hard to predict for 2022 knowing that Gregorius might not spend time at shortstop at all due to the impending promotion of minor league slugger Bryson Stott. For the purpose of this comparison, we’ll use Gregorius’ number only because Stott still remains a minor-leaguer off the Phillies 40-man roster.

Rollins is a better player in every facet than Gregorius. He is a better offensive player, defensive player and baserunner. However, Gregorius’ 2021 was impacted severely by an injury to his elbow that wasn’t fully disclosed to Phillies staff.

It’s not entirely clear how much his hitting was affected by this problem. Hopefully 2022 will see Gregorius return to his former self offensively. Still, Gregorius is aging and his offensive production will have declined from his prime, even disregarding the elbow injury.

To predict Gregroius’ numbers in 2022, it may be prudent to look more closely at his career slashline of .259/.310/.427. Phillies fans might find that underwhelming from a shortstop the front office will pay $14 million in 2022, but it would still be a massive improvement from 2021.

Nevertheless, Rollins OPS in 2008 was .786 compared to Gregorius’ career .737. Rollins' base running and 47 stolen bases grossly overshadow anything Gregorius could ever hope to accomplish on the base paths.

The edge goes to Rollins here, score two to 2008.

Left Field:

USATSI_16982911 (1) — © Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Kyle Schwarber (2021: .266/.374/.554 32HR) vs. Pat Burrell (2008: .250/.367/.507 33HR)

Having played a more regular left field than Castellanos in his career, we’re assuming that Schwarber we’ll see the majority of the time there as opposed to DH in 2022.

Schwarber and Burrell are remarkably similar players down from their offensive style to their defense. Burrell was 31 in 2008, Schwarber will be 29 for the 2022 season.

Coming off the best season of his career, it might not be fair expecting Schwarber to repeat what he did in 2021. However, having worked with former-Washington Nationals hitting coach Kevin Long last year to rebuild his swing, Schwarber may have unlocked new offensive potential, one that will age significantly better than other players of his caliber due to a well trained plate approach.

Schwarber’s OPS+ in 2021 was 148, but for his career that number drops to 119. Expect his 2022 total to fall somewhere in that range. Meanwhile, Burrell had an OPS+ of 125 in 2008, right in the middle of the range where one would expect Schwarber to fall.

We consider this comparison a push, no score to either year.

Center Field:

USATSI_3353406 — © James Lang-USA TODAY Sports

Odúbel Herrera (2021: .260/.310/.416)/Matt Vierling (2021: .324/.364/.479) vs. Shane Victorino (2008: .293/.352/.447)

Looking solely at the slashline between these players, it seems Victorino’s 2022 counterparts aren’t that far behind his offensive output. However, Vierling will undoubtedly regress from the numbers he put out in only 77 plate appearances in 2021.

Herrera is more predictable though. The amount of playing time he’ll receive is debatable, but he’s been a league average center fielder his entire career, there’s no reason to think he’ll do any better than that in 2022.

Victorino was worth 8 rBAT in 2008, Herrera and Vierling combined were worth 2 in 2021. Victorino only has a slight edge over the 2021 Phillies center fielders, but since Vierling is so untested, we’ll give Victorino the edge over the 2022 iteration of Phillies center fielders.

Score two to 2008.

Right Field:

Harper Lauren Piece 2 — Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Bryce Harper (2021: .309/.429/.615 35HR) vs. Jayson Werth (2008: .273/.363/.498 24HR)

Unless you’re 60 or older, Harper’s 2021 is probably the best offensive season any Phillie has had in your lifetime. Harper’s become more consistent since he’s arrived in Philadelphia, but 2021 stood out over the rest of his seasons, and it’s likely he’ll be unable to repeat it.

In predicting Harper’s 2022 one might look at his offensive number since arriving in Philadelphia to get a better understanding of what the slugger might do. His slashline since 2019 is .281/.402/.556 for an OPS+ of 151, well above Werth’s OPS+ of 122.

Werth was a great offensive player in 2008, but Harper’s in his offensive prime right now, swinging a bat that will one day get him inducted to the Hall of Fame. Werth was worth 16 rBAT in 2008, but Harper was worth 50!

Harper has a significant edge over Werth, score three to 2022.

Designated Hitter:

USATSI_17142700 (1) — © Meg Vogel / USA TODAY NETWORK

Nick Castellanos (2021: .309/.362/.576 34HR) vs. Greg Dobbs (2008: .301/.333/.491 9HR)

The 2008 Phillies obviously didn’t have a regular DH, but Dobbs was the best Phillies bench-bat and was used as DH on multiple occasions when the Phillies played in American League ballparks.

Dobbs didn’t have a full season in 2008 to rack up the home run totals that Castellanos did in 2021. But Dobbs was one of the most useful bench-bats in Phillies history. He only made 240 plate appearances but played in 128 games.

Dobbs' OPS+ was a very respectable 112 in 2008, but that’s dwarfed by Castellanos’ 136 in 2021.

Castellanos has been one of baseball’s best pure hitters since his 2016 season with the Detroit Tigers. In that six year span he’s slashed .286/.338/.515 for an OPS+ of 122. Recently, he’s taken his offensive game to another level, becoming one of the NL’s best hitters in 2021 and placing 12th in MVP voting, winning a Silver Slugger in the process.

Castellanos has an edge over Dobbs, score two points to 2022.

Looking at the lineup positionally, the 2022 Phillies have a two point lead over 2008.

But the 2008 Phillies scored 799 runs and the 2021 Phillies only scored 734 runs, do Schwarber and Castllanos alone add 65 runs to the Phillies offense.

Using Bill James’ runs created formula, we can attempt to extract just how many runs a player like Castellanos or Schwarber is worth to a team.

In 2021 Bryce Harper led the NL with 134 runs created. Castellanos was ninth in the NL, with 107 runs created. Schwarber created another 86 runs of his own in 2021. Add those totals to the Phillies 2021 offense and you arrive at 927 runs for 2022.

Yet, the Phillies lost Andrew McCutchen and Brad Miller to free agency this winter, between them were 76 and 49 runs respectively. Subtract their total from 927 to get 802 runs.

If Schwarber and Castellanos retain their pace from 2021 and the Phillies offense that remains from 2021 doesn’t get any worse, the 2022 Phillies should be almost exactly as productive as their 2008 counterparts.

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