© Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
One of the Best Closers Might Be Out of the Phillies' Price Range
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The Philadelphia Phillies need bullpen help. That much is certain.
Seranthony Domínguez and Connor Brogdon have been excellent this season. Brad Hand has been good in limited appearances. Andrew Bellatti has been a pleasant surprise.
But Corey Knebel and Jeurys Familia, who the Dave Dombrowski signed for a combined $16 million last winter, have been disappointing. Sam Coonrod has been injured. Nick Nelson has been a serviceable long man, but that's really all he is. José Alvarado has been as wildly unpredictable as ever.
Suffice to say, Dombrowski will be looking to upgrade the bullpen at the trade deadline. If Philadelphia wants to compete deep into October — or reach October for that matter — they'll need another reliever or two for Rob Thomson to deploy in difficult spots.
Enter David Bednar.
The Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander has been lights out all year, pitching 31.2 innings with a 1.14 ERA. He has saved 11 games in 12 chances.
Bednar is averaging close to 97 MPH with his fourseam fastball, and he throws a gorgeous, practically unhittable curveball as his secondary pitch.
The only Phillies reliever with comparable numbers this year is Domínguez, who also has an ERA below two and a 97 MPH fastball. But Domínguez is still a bit of a question mark, considering he has not pitched a full season since 2018. Bednar is coming off a breakout 2021 season in which he pitched 61 games and finished as one of the best relievers in the National League.
Philadelphia will have to be cautious this year not to overburden Domínguez's arm. Bednar, on the other hand, is currently second among NL relievers in innings pitched and seems ready to pitch as much and as often as his team requires.
Were the Phillies to trade for Bednar, he would immediately become the best and most reliable reliever in their bullpen. So what's stopping Dombrowski from getting on the phone with Pirates GM Ben Cherington and hashing out a deal right now?
That's an easy one: the cost.
Not only is Bednar one of the most talented relievers available, but he is also in the prime of his career and under team control for several more seasons. As a pre-arbitration player, he is making the league minimum salary this year and in 2023. He is not eligible for arbitration until the 2024 season, and he will not be a free agent until November 2026.
Pittsburgh, or whichever team trades for Bednar, will have him at a team-friendly price for his age 27-through-31 seasons. That's highly valuable, so Cherington isn't going to give up his star closer at trade deadline for just anything. In fact, he might not trade him at all.
The right-hander will remain a valuable commodity this offseason and at next year's deadline, and he still earns the league minimum salary. The Pirates will be in no hurray to offload him. Unless Cherington is blown away by an offer, Bednar will be staying in Pittsburgh a little while longer.
Pittsburgh Pirates closer David Bednar celebrates after closing out a win against the L.A. Dodgers.
In order to land a player of Bednar's caliber and contract status, the Phillies would have to send over a king's ransom in prospects. They have the necessary pieces to get the deal done, but whether or not Dombrowski is willing to part with those pieces remains to be seen.
Logan O'Hoppe, largely thought to be Philadelphia's top trade chip, would be of little interest to the Pirates, who already have two catchers among their top ten prospects. With O'Hoppe off the table, the Phillies would have to be willing to offer another of their top prospects, and Dombrowski probably isn't willing to give up Mick Abel, Andrew Painter, or Johan Rojas in this kind of deal.
One of Philadelphia's biggest competitive advantages is having an owner who is willing to spend money to improve the team. Dombrowski, therefore, should not be looking to trade for cost-controlled players on team-friendly contracts.
Bednar is an excellent pitcher, but the reason he's going to cost so much in prospect capital is because whichever team trades for him isn't going to have to pay him very much money. That shouldn't matter to a team like the Phillies, so it makes very little sense for them to give up the young players it would take to acquire Bednar.
Philadelphia's window to compete is now, and the front office should not hesitate to trade prospects if it will help the team win. At the same time, there is a big difference between giving up prospects to help the team win and giving up prospects to help the team save money.
Bednar would be of tremendous help to Philadelphia's bullpen. The Phillies, however, should be targeting more expensive relievers on one or two-year contracts instead. If Dombrowski is giving up extra prospects in order to trade for a cost-controlled reliever, he is making a mistake.
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