Blue Jays Surpass Texas Rangers in Wild Card Odds
The Toronto Blue Jays now have better odds than the Texas Rangers to claim one of the three Wild Card playoff berths on the American League.
But the Rangers still have higher probability to make the playoffs.
Confused yet?
The latest postseason projections from FanGraphs are both promising and somewhat scary from a Texas standpoint. Once virtually a lock to reach the playoffs – the Rangers had 95% chance on Aug. 15 – the odds have been in a steady decline with the club’s ongoing struggles.
Texas is 4-13 since Aug. 16 to fall into third place in the AL West behind the co-leading Seattle Mariners (77-60) and Houston Astros (78-61). (Seattle has a slightly better winning percentage since Houston has played two more games.) The Rangers (76-61) trail both division rivals by one game.
The Astros moved back into first after pillaging the Rangers bullpen again in Monday’s 13-6 rout at Globe Life Field. The Mariners lost to the Cincinnati Reds.
While the odds of winning the West are now just 13.8% for Texas, that’s significant when it comes to making the playoffs. The Rangers have a 46.9% shot of clinching a Wild Card berth. Adding both percentages together gives Texas a 60.7% postseason probability.
The swoon has not only washed away the Rangers’ lead in the division, it’s allowed the Blue Jays to just about catch Texas in the Wild Card race. Toronto (76-62) is just a half-game behind the Rangers in those standings.
The Blue Jays have a 59.2% chance of nabbing a Wild Card spot – which is more than 12% higher than Texas.
The math from FanGraphs has both the AL East and West runner-ups taking the first two Wild Card berths. That leaves the Rangers and Blue Jays as the two likely foes battling it out for the last playoff entry.
Of course, Toronto has virtually no shot at winning the East. The Rangers are just a hot streak – or cold spells from Houston and/or Seattle – from vaulting back to the top of the division. The Astros have odds of 52.7% and 92% to take the division and reach the playoffs, respectively. Seattle’s odds stand at 33.2% and 79.9%.
The AL West standings are guaranteed to have movement Tuesday, as the Rangers and Astros meet in the middle game of the series at 7:05 p.m.
You can follow Art Garcia on Twitter @ArtGarcia92.
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