Rangers Trade for Merrill Kelly Now Looks Like Failure on Multiple Levels

The Texas Rangers saw their trade deadline acquisition, Merrill Kelly, head back to his former team on a reported two-year deal.

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The Texas Rangers bolstered their starting rotation at last season’s trade deadline with the acquisition of Merrill Kelly. It was a risk, and now the risk, in hindsight, looks like a bad one on every front.

The final blow came Sunday morning when The Athletic (subscription required) reported that Kelly and the Arizona Diamondbacks — the team that traded him to Texas — agreed to a two-year, $40 million deal, taking him off the market.

It’s now a trade the Rangers have lost on every level.

The Merrill Kelly Trade

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To get Kelly, the Rangers had to give up three pitchers — left-hander Kohl Drake, left-hander Mitch Bratt and right-hander David Hagaman. All three were Top 15 prospects in the Rangers’ system at the time of the deal, per MLB Pipeline. Drake is the No. 6 prospect for the D-backs, Bratt is No. 9 and Hagaman is No. 15. Drake and Bratt were moved to the MLB roster for Rule 5 draft purposes and that was part of the logic for trading them. But they’re seen as future rotation pieces for the D-backs, who needed young pitching.

Drake has pitched at Triple-A while Bratt has reached Double-A. There’s a scenario that could evolve in which either could pitch in the same rotation with Kelly, which would be a stab in the back to the Rangers, especially if either one becomes a front-line starter long-term.

The cost was too high for what Texas got. Kelly was serviceable in 10 starts with the Rangers. He went 3-3 with a 4.23 ERA. But his ERA went up by a point over his ERA in Arizona. He struck out 46 and walked 10 with Texas. Batters hit .267 against him with the Rangers while his opponent batting average with Arizona was .206.

Texas didn’t get a rotation-altering pitcher in return for three Top 15 prospects. The Rangers got a tiring vet who gutted out every start he made for the Rangers, who faded in the final two weeks of the season and missed the playoffs for the second straight year. After the season, manager Bruce Bochy stepped aside, Skip Schumaker was hired as manager and the franchise has gone in a new direction.

The final blow is the reported terms of the deal — two years, $40 million. That’s great money for Kelly, who is nearing the end of his career. It’s also a more accurate reflection of the pitching market the Rangers are seeking. They were never candidates for a pitcher like Dylan Cease. Kelly was more in their wheelhouse. The right-hander was probably more comfortable in Arizona. But, at $20 million per year, one must wonder of a contract like that is too right for the Rangers’ cost-conscious blood?

This also means that the starting pitching market could start to heat up as most teams have focused on relievers in free agency. A starting pitching market that the Rangers could have been patient with just 24 hours ago may start to move — with or without them.

No decision is made in a vacuum. The Rangers certainly gamed out the Kelly deal in every way and knew the risk. But, in terms of what they gave up, what they got in return, how the season ended and what Kelly got in a new deal, none of this worked out in the Rangers’ favor, with the benefit of hindsight.