Ranking Projected MLB Opening Day Starters

While bullpens and openers have become all the rage in the age of analytics, the ace starting pitcher is still inherent in baseball. That’s why, despite this shift in philosophy, there’s still no better feeling for a manager than handing the ball to his ace and getting out of the way.

So with the start of the regular season around the corner, let’s take a look around The Show and rank each team’s starter who is projected to take the ball on Opening Day and would most likely earn a Game 1 starting assignment if the playoffs started today. Players who are currently injured are not included.

30. LHP Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

Freeland hasn’t pitched to a sub-4.50 ERA since 2021 and while he suffers from playing roughly half his games at the hitter-friendly Coors Field, he also did himself no favors. Freeland threw nearly half his pitches in the zone in 2025 and the results—4.98 ERA, 47.3% hard-hit rate—were disastrous.

29. LHP Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

The rebuilding Cardinals will likely hand the ball to Liberatore, who is off to a strong start to the spring, on Opening Day. In a career-high 151 ⅔ innings in ‘25, the southpaw pitched to a 4.21 ERA and 4.03 FIP. Liberatore added a splitter to his repertoire, perhaps in the hopes of adding more missed bats to his game.

28. RHP Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

If nothing else, Cavalli’s ranking has more to do with the fact that he simply hasn’t had the chance to show what he can do on the mound due to injuries, recovery and setbacks. The former first-round pick showed an ability to miss bats at the Triple-A level, so there’s something to work with.

27. LHP Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels

Kikuchi, 34, is something of a workhorse, having hurled at least 175 innings in each of the last two seasons. That’s an impressive feat in today’s game. An All-Star in ’25, Kikuchi will likely provide 170-ish innings, a sub-4.00 ERA and an above-average strikeout rate once again in 2026. Solid numbers, to be sure, just not ace material like the names higher on this list.

26. RHP Luis Severino, A’s

Severino, as he expressed multiple times publicly, is not quite comfortable pitching in the team’s temporary home in Sacramento, where he owns a 6.01 ERA compared to a 3.02 ERA on the road. If he can better resemble the road version of himself, the A’s will be in good shape in ’26.

25. RHP Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox

Smith, an All-Star for the first time in ’25, is the likeliest candidate to start on Opening Day after a season that saw him amass a 3.81 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 2.3 WAR in 29 starts.

24. RHP Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Zac Gallen — Zac Gallen signed a one-year, $22 million contract to return to the Diamondbacks this offseason. | Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Gallen posted career-worst marks in ERA, FIP and strikeout rate in ’25, but finished the season strong, lending hope to a bounce-back this year. Merrill Kelly was likely the favorite to start on Opening Day but will likely be sidelined for the season’s first game, meaning Gallen could start his fourth straight Opening Day. Should Gallen enjoy a bounce-back in line with his career norms—sub-3.50 ERA and good-to-great strikeout rates—this ranking will be too low.

23. RHP Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

Williams traded his usual high fastball usage of the past for higher curveball-slider usage to great success in the form of a career-best 3.06 ERA and 24.6% strikeout rate. Williams’s bugaboo is his propensity to walk batters, inviting traffic and trouble on the bases.

22. LHP Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

Rogers, after pitching to a 1.81 ERA and finishing ninth in the AL Cy Young Award race, may have the upper hand in a competition with Kyle Bradish for the Opening Day start. The question is, who is the real Rogers? The ace-like turn in ’25 or the pitcher who struggled to locate his fastball en route to ERAs north of 4.90 in ’22 and ’24?

21. RHP Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

Rasmussen in February was named the Rays’ Opening Day starter after a season that saw him triumphantly return from his third elbow surgery and pitch to a 2.76 ERA in a career-best 150 innings. With good health, another All-Star campaign could be in store for the Rays hurler.

20. RHP Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs

Chicago’s Opening Day starter situation is perhaps the most unclear in the league, as all five of their starters have a reasonable case. We’ll go with Horton, who was called up last May and never looked back. He won 11 games, pitched to a 2.67 ERA and 1.08 WHIP while finishing second in the National League Rookie of the Year voting.

19. RHP Michael King, San Diego Padres

Shoulder and knee injuries cut into King’s 2025 season. But in ’24? The Padres ace was one of the better pitchers in baseball, recording a 2.95 ERA and a 201:63 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30 starts while finishing seventh in the NL Cy Young Award race.

18. RHP Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

Ryan broke out for a disappointing Twins team last year, posting career highs in ERA and innings pitched while being named to his first All-Star team. Only three pitchers—Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet and Paul Skenes—had a bigger difference between their strikeout and walk rates than Ryan.

17. RHP Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara — Sandy Alcantara is in line to start his sixth Opening Day for the Marlins. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Alcantara returned from Tommy John surgery and pitched to a career-worst 5.36 ERA. But he began to more closely resemble the pitcher who won the 2022 NL Cy Young over the season’s final two months. Healthy and with a new sweeper in his tool belt, Alcantara could make this ranking look foolish by midseason.

16. RHP Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

Gausman, the second-longest tenured Blue Jays starter, is our projection to take the ball on Opening Day over new signee Dylan Cease on the heels of yet another solid regular season and a dominant postseason performance. Since arriving in Toronto in ‘22, Gausman ranks third in strikeouts, fourth in innings pitched and has recorded a 3.48 ERA.

15. LHP Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals

“I’m healthy and I feel good,” Ragans declared to The Kansas City Star this spring after missing a large chunk of last season with a rotator cuff strain. The last time Ragans was healthy and felt good? He struck out 223 batters in 186 ⅓ innings while finishing fourth in the 2024 American League Cy Young Award voting.

14. RHP Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers

Woodruff ranks fourth in ERA (2.77), fourth in opponent batting average (.198), and owns the seventh-largest difference between his strikeout and walk percentages since 2021. The problem? Injuries cost him the entire 2024 season and held him under 100 innings in both ’23 and ’25. But when Woodruff is healthy, there are few pitchers who are better.

13. RHP Freddy Peralta, New York Mets

2025 was the year Freddy Peralta put it all together. He set career highs in wins (17), ERA (2.70) and innings pitched (176 ⅔) while striking out 200 batters for the third time in his career. He ranked inside the top 10 in strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate. Peralta’s reputation should benefit from the added media attention he’ll receive from pitching in New York.

12. RHP Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

Is Jacob deGrom still elite? The answer to that question was a resounding yes last year. Recording his most innings pitched in a season since 2019, deGrom ranked among the top 20 starters in ERA, opponent batting average and strikeouts while finishing eighth in the AL Cy Young vote. Even at 37 years old, deGrom averaged 97.5 mph on his heater. There’s plenty of gas left in the tank.

11. RHP Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

Had Greene qualified in innings, he would have tied for 18th in ERA while ranking top-10 in strikeout rate and WHIP in 2025. Greene’s blazing fastball is one of MLB’s best and his slider boasted a 46.9% whiff rate. If Greene stays healthy, a Cy Young Award is well within his reach.

10. RHP Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb — Logan Webb will start his fifth straight Opening Day for the Giants. | Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

If you look up reliability in the dictionary, you’ll see a picture of Webb. The Giants righthander is one of two pitchers—Zack Wheeler is the other—to rank in the top 20 in total innings pitched, ERA, strikeouts and quality starts since 2022.

9. RHP Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

Woo became just the fourth pitcher in the last five seasons to pitch at least 180 innings, record a WHIP under 1.00, a strikeout rate above 27% and a walk rate below 5%, joining Tarik Skubal (twice) and Aaron Nola. The most impressive part? Only Skubal threw more pitches in the strike zone than the fearless Mariners hurler.

8. LHP Max Fried, New York Yankees

Fried’s career adjusted ERA ranks fourth all-time among lefthanded pitchers. The southpaw has been one of the best pitchers of the last several years, a trend that continued in his first season in New York. Fried led MLB in wins, ranked fourth in innings pitched and eighth in ERA en route to a fourth place AL Cy Young vote finish.

7. RHP Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

Armed with a sizzling four-seam fastball, knee-buckling knucklecurve and a plus sinker that closely resembles his heater until the last second, Brown entered the ace tier in ’25. Hitters simply never were comfortable against the high arm angle of Brown’s over-the-top release, as they hit just .200 against him while striking out 28.3% of the time.

6. LHP Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies

It’s positively criminal that Sanchez, the best lefthanded starter in the NL last season, wasn’t an All-Star. The Dominican Republic native set career highs in wins (13), ERA (2.50), innings pitched (202) and strikeouts (212). So good was Sanchez that he perfectly filled in for injured Phillies ace Zack Wheeler, no easy task.

5. LHP Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

Injuries have been problematic in Sale’s career. But when healthy, he’s one of the five best pitchers in MLB, as evidenced by his 2024 Cy Young Award-winning campaign. Sale’s slider remains as devastating as ever, boasting a 44.3% strikeout rate in ’25.

4. LHP Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

One could make the case that Crochet should be ranked higher on this list after a dominant campaign in which he led MLB in strikeouts, threw the second-most innings and posted the sixth-highest ERA. Crochet finished second to Tigers ace Tarik Skubal in the AL Cy Young vote. There’s a good chance the award could be his in 2026.

3. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto — Yoshinobu Yamamoto will start his second consecutive Opening Day for the Dodgers. | Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images

Arguably no pitcher had a better year than Yamamoto. He set career highs across the board in the regular season, then pitched the Dodgers to their second straight World Series title with a 1.45 ERA in five postseason starts. Yamamoto shutting the door on the Blue Jays while pitching on zero days’ rest in Game 7 was a herculean feat, one that earned him World Series MVP.

2. RHP Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

2024 NL Rookie of the Year. 2025 NL Cy Young Award winner. Skenes has arguably the most impressive first two seasons in a starting pitching career, a stretch that has seen him record a 1.96 ERA, the lowest of any pitcher through 55 starts dating back to 1920.

1. LHP Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

Just like in Skubal’s arbitration-winning strategy, no more needs to be said than back-to-back AL Cy Young Award victories. But we’ll say more anyway. Skubal is the best pitcher on the planet, having averaged a 2.30 ERA and 234:34 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 194 innings the last two regular seasons. With a dominant 2.04 ERA in six career postseason starts, Skubal gives the Tigers an edge in any playoff series.