Rays’ Top Outfield Prospect Faces a Defining Upcoming Season

For a Tampa Bay Rays system lacking outfield depth and ranking near the bottom of production at the positions, a prospect's development as an outfielder of the future is vital.

Jun 20, 2023; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Draft prospect Aidan Smith during a high school baseball game at the MLB Draft Combine at Chase Field. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

When the Tampa Bay Rays traded Randy Arozarena to the Seattle Mariners ahead of the 2024 trade deadline, it had to be for a good reason to justify the shocking departure.

The Rays’ hero of the 2020s smashed postseason hitting records, won hardware, and put Tampa Bay baseball on the map with his energetic play, making him a true face of the franchise. He also left a massive hole in left field.

Starting pitcher Brody Hopkins made well on the price of trading Arozarena with a stellar 2025 season, all while securing a spot in MLB’s top 100 prospects list. Meanwhile, outfielder Aidan Smith, a key player in the deal that convinced the Rays to pull the trigger, saw his share of struggles in his first full season with the organization.

The now 21-year-old outfielder faces a test ahead in 2026 after a subpar year that will settle whether he’s a future regular or backup plan in Tampa Bay’s grand plan.

Aidan Smith under pressure to perform in 2026

Jun 20, 2023; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Draft prospect Aidan Smith during a high school baseball game at the MLB Draft Combine at Chase Field. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

For a Rays system lacking outfield depth and ranking near the bottom of production in the Big Leagues at the positions, Smith’s development as an outfielder of the future is vital to Tampa Bay’s next competitive core.

It’s easy to see what the Rays liked about his profile. A skinny yet strong 6-foot-2, Smith’s calling card is his athleticism at the plate and in the field, which the organization's minor league staff is looking to get more out of. The lean, tall, muscular frame allows him to play top-notch defense at the corners, with Tampa Bay looking to see if his range and speed can play above average in center field. 

Hitting-wise, Smith is a work in progress who has mechanical challenges that limit him, yet tools that elevate him. His best traits are feel for the strike zone, strong bat speed, and a running game that led to 41 stolen bases this past minor league season.

He demonstrated a keen sense for the zone in 2024, especially in the Rays system, where he posted a near elite walk-to-strikeout ratio, albeit in only 20 games. That, and untapped raw power within his strong pull side swing, suggest the type of abilities a 20-home run, 20-stolen base player could show in the Major Leagues.

Beneath the luster are some glaring issues. He used a patient approach in A-Ball with Seattle that has needed to be adjusted as he’s moved along. The transition from turning the passivity that works in lower levels to taking a more aggressive approach against better pitching is vital. He’s in a make-or-break phase as a 21-year-old where he needs to tone down the on-base prowess and turn up the in-zone swing decisions.

Aidan Smith has to fix mechanics at the plate

Jun 20, 2023; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Draft prospect Aidan Smith during a high school baseball game at the MLB Draft Combine at Chase Field. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

There’s also his swing mechanics, which are far from being sound. Smith is a tall and lanky athlete in a way that makes his swing levers long and clunkier than he’d like them to be. An awkward swing that never looked comfortable for all of 2025 led to Smith’s grim 31% strikeout rate that hopefully is not a trend of things to come.

For the Tampa Bay hitting coaches, Smith’s mechanics are going to be paramount and the crux of his busting out of last season’s hitting swoon. Currently, he struggles with velocity and fitting into a consistent stance that allows him to hit fastballs.

All too often in 2025, he made minor tweaks to his approach that kept digging him further into a hole. This season’s objective should be to target early on how he can stay comfortable in the box and settle into a nice groove.

Rays 20 year old OF prospect Aidan Smith had a monster game last night with 2 HRs and 6 RBIs.

He has an intriguing power/speed combination. pic.twitter.com/h4PJuG1tMB

— Jake (@TBRaysCentral) July 12, 2025

Smith has a great blend of tools that hints at a bright future as a Big League starter. Baseball America ranks him as the best defender in the Rays’ system with a plus arm and range that took massive strides last season.

At the plate, Smith has the eye and power to produce. It will ultimately come down to whether 2026 is the breakthrough point in him unlocking a swing that will gear his hit tool to be more consistent in the long run.

What the Rays lost in Arozarena’s power/speed combination, Smith has the chance to bring it back as a key piece in the Rays' future.