Red Sox Fans Will Love Expert's Assessment Of Willson Contreras' Fit

Stability at first base would be a welcome sight for the Boston Red Sox.

After years of inconsistency at the position, aided and abetted by injuries to Triston Casas in the last two seasons, the Red Sox acquired Willson Contreras from the St. Louis Cardinals last week. While Contreras was a three-time All-Star as a catcher early in his career, he has settled in as a steady hand at first base as a 33-year-old.

Though Contreras already had solid, yet unspectacular stats with the Cardinals this past season, one baseball analyst believes there are multiple reasons to believe he could tick upward again in the years to come.

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Contreras, Red Sox a match made in heaven?

On Sunday, MLB.com's Manny Randwaha assessed Contreras' fit in Boston and discussed why the veteran's offensive numbers were probably a bit unlucky this past season, which could lead to better production without making any changes.

"(Contreras') quality of contact metrics suggest he actually had a better season than the traditional stats show -- his expected batting average (.260), expected slugging percentage (.481) and expected weighted on-base average (.358) were all better than the actual results," Randwaha wrote.

"Contreras’ hard-hit rate (49%) and barrel rate (13.9%) were each excellent, and he is one of the game’s elites when it comes to bat speed -- his 76 mph average bat speed ranked in the 95th percentile among qualified batters in 2025."

Randwaha's other point was that moving from Busch Stadium to Fenway Park would likely increase Contreras' production, especially because he's started pulling the ball in the air more often than he did as a young hitter.

"Busch Stadium, Contreras’ home park for the past three seasons, is ranked 18th out of the 28 Statcast-equipped ballparks (so not including Sutter Health Park in Sacramento and George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa) when it comes to Statcast’s park factor -- a measure of how hitter-friendly a venue is," Randwaha wrote.

"The venue with the second-highest park factor? That would be Boston’s Fenway Park (104). Going from Busch to Fenway should be a boon for Contreras at the plate."

Red Sox fans are likely to find Contreras a pleasant surprise, even knowing the track record he's bringing to town. He hits the ball exceptionally hard, and having seen righties like Hunter Renfroe, Adam Duvall, and Tyler O'Neill succeed in Boston, Contreras (who is better than all of those players) could enjoy a similar boost.

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