Red Sox Insider Hints At Likelihood Of Jarren Duran Blockbuster

Will the All-Star be on the move?

Aug 31, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox left fielder Jarren Duran (16) runs for home plate after hitting a two run inside the park home run against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fifth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images | Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran is in a tough spot.

Under any normal circumstances, a player with an All-Star appearance and 13 wins above replacement in the last two seasons would never be on the trade block, especially with three years until free agency. But in Boston, Duran has somehow wound up becoming expendable in an overcrowded outfield.

The trade rumors have surrounded Duran for multiple seasons now, but when this offseason began, the possibility felt much more real than ever before that he could be gone for good. Where do the odds stand now, though, as the most important week of the offseason approaches?

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Duran's trade likelihood high, but not guaranteed

On Thursday, MLB.com Red Sox beat writer Ian Browne discussed the likelihood of Duran getting traded this offseason, and his barometer for whether it would happen seemed to hinge on Boston's ability to acquire a top-tier starting pitcher in the deal.

"If the Red Sox can put together a package that includes Duran that will land them an elite starter -- someone who could pitch near the front of the rotation in a postseason series -- I believe it is very likely," wrote Browne.

"However, given Duran’s talent, the Red Sox aren’t just going to trade him to make it easier for Cora to divvy up the playing time in the outfield. It will have to be the right deal for Boston to move on from Duran."

It would make a lot of sense if Boston's front office was operating with the mindset that Duran, rather than being a piece to offload for a big package from another team, is best served as a piece of a package Boston was putting together to land a big-name starting pitcher.

Browne specifically referenced Joe Ryan, Cole Ragans, and Tarik Skubal as the pitchers Boston could target with Duran as a centerpiece, and there are likely a couple of other candidates as well who don't play in the American League Central.

So are the odds of a Duran trade better than 50-50? Right now, it feels like we're right on the borderline. But because the issue has been hanging over the Red Sox's head for so long, perhaps removing that distraction is a tiebreaker in favor of getting a deal done.

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