Red Sox Insider Predicts Connelly Early vs. Payton Tolle Rotation Decision

A tougher choice than one might expect

Pitchers Payton Tolle (left) and Connelly Early (second from left) stand for the national anthem ahead of Triple-A Worcester's game at Polar Park on Aug. 21, 2025. | WooSox Photo/Ashley Green / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox have eroded some of their major league starting pitching depth, sure, but there's still lots to speak of.

Despite trading Richard Fitts and Hunter Dobbins to the St. Louis Cardinals, the Red Sox have at least 10 viable options for the rotation, assuming no injuries in spring training. Four spots should be locked up, with Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, Brayan Bello, and Johan Oviedo likely taking the ball in that order.

That leaves one spot at best for the two rookie lefties, Connelly Early and Payton Tolle. Both will likely get shots to stick in the rotation for good, but who will be first out of the gate?

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Early starting year in rotation over Tolle?

One insider recently registered his prediction.

In a projection of the Red Sox's rotation to begin the season, Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe included Early over Tolle, likely due to the former having the better track record in an incredibly small sample.

"Tolle has a big fastball but is still learning to command his other pitches. Early doesn’t throw particularly hard — his fastball averaged 93.7 miles per hour — but has a six-pitch mix," wrote Abraham.

Early, 23, allowed five earned runs and struck out 29 batters in his 19 1/3 regular-season innings. He then took the ball in a winner-take-all playoff game against the New York Yankees, and was tagged with four runs (three earned) across 3 2/3 innings, though he frankly didn't deserve the blame.

Tolle, meanwhile, had some struggles at the big-league level after rocketing through the minors in his first professional season. He allowed 11 earned runs, including five home runs, in his 16 2/3 regular-season innings, though he did muster 19 strikeouts.

Of course, both Early and Tolle will also have to contend with Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval, who missed all of this past season with injuries, as well as Kyle Harrison, the only piece of the Rafael Devers trade from which the Red Sox can hope to salvage some value.

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