Red Sox's $22 Million Qualifying Offer Decision Hinges On This Question

Lucas Giolito is one of the most complicated case studies in recent memory with respect to the qualifying offer ahead of free agency.

If the Red Sox tender Giolito that $22.025 million offer, they'll be entitled to an extra draft pick if he declines it and signs elsewhere. But $22 million is a fairly high price tag for someone with a complicated track record, even if he's coming off a strong season.

Adding to the complication of the decision, Giolito suffered an elbow injury at the end of the season, so even if he's now back to full health, that injury was the lasting impression he made on other teams that might be interested in signing him.

Why Red Sox have to want Giolito back to extend QO

Aug 26, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito (54) reacts to a strikeout to end the eighth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: James A. Pittman-Imagn Images | James A. Pittman-Imagn Images

The bottom line is that the Red Sox can only tender the qualifying offer to Giolito if they're comfortable at a bare minimum about the prospect of his return, if not altogether enthusiastic. As Chris Cotillo of MassLive explained on Friday, that is likely the case.

"The Red Sox have to be comfortable with the possibility of Giolito accepting the qualifying offer before the November 18 deadline to decide, and therefore returning on a high-dollar one-year deal," Cotillo wrote.

"Considering the need for rotation help, Boston would likely be fine with that outcome and because of Breslow’s insistence about raising the ceiling of the group, it almost certainly wouldn’t change the desire to add a true No. 2 behind Crochet."

It's easy to compare the Giolito decision to Nick Pivetta a year ago. Boston seemed unenthusiastic about Pivetta coming back, but read his market well enough to know he would likely turn down the offer, which was $21.05 million a year ago.

However, Cotillo's report suggested that Boston wouldn't be viewing a QO for Giolito as the same type of gamble.

"A year ago, the Red Sox guessed correctly on Pivetta and reaped the benefits when he decided to decline, then settle for a convoluted, spring deal with San Diego," Cotillo wrote. "The sense here is that there’s more interest in retaining Giolito than there was with Pivetta a year ago."

Boston only has five days after the conclusion of the World Series, which will end Saturday night no matter which team wins, to make its decision.

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