Red Sox Superstar Gets $160 Million Projection As Free Agency Awaits

The same question that dominated the latter half of Major League Baseball free agency last winter is once again front of mind: What is Alex Bregman truly worth?

Bregman made his third All-Star appearance this year in his first (and possibly only) year in a Boston Red Sox uniform. It was a topsy-turvy year, as a red-hot start gave way to a quad injury and a second-half slump, but by all accounts, the 31-year-old still plans to opt out of the final two years of his $40 million-per-year deal in Boston.

Clearly, the Red Sox would want Bregman back on a short-term commitment. But how long will they be willing to go once other teams enter the bidding war, and how much will the veteran ultimately sign for?

Bregman's latest projection should be affordable for Boston

Sep 25, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Boston Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman (2) throws out Toronto Blue Jays catcher Tyler Heineman (not pictured) at first base during the third inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images | John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

On Sunday, NBC Sports' Matthew Pouliot took a stab at projecting Bregman's next contract: five years, $160 million, which would seem to justify the All-Star's decision to leave $80 million on the table in Boston.

"(Bregman) hit just .180/.273/.262 in his final 31 games, dropping his OPS from .933 to .821," Pouliot wrote. "Bregman remains a strong defender, and he’s showed an impressively steady bat since his steep decline from his near-MVP campaigns in 2018 and ’19. Still, it’d be dangerous to give him the kind of rest-of-career contract he obviously desires. Prediction: five years, $160 million."

Of course, there are countless other factors that play in besides years and dollars. How much of the money would be deferred? Will there be more opt-outs, and could the deal be front-loaded to guarantee him more money before those potential opt-outs? What about performance escalators?

Within the next week, we'll know officially of Bregman's decision to opt out, as well as whether shortstop Trevor Story will do the same. We'll also know whether the Red Sox decide to tender a qualifying offer to Lucas Giolito, which has major implications for the rotation.

In other words, it's going to be a big week for the Red Sox after several quiet ones, and soon enough, the daily Bregman rumor watch will begin.

More MLB: Why Red Sox Star's $55 Million Opt-In May Not Be Guaranteed