Stock Watch: Three Cincinnati Reds Players to Buy Ahead of the 2024 Season

The Cincinnati Reds saw their fair share of rookie debuts in 2023 and many of those were for small amounts of time. A term people use when evaluating statistical performances is “small sample size” and the Reds had lots of them.

Whose performances do we think are the real deal? Which small sample size do we buy ahead of the 2024 season?

Here are three guys that scratched the surface of their potential in 2023:

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

Encarnacion-Strand only played in 63 games last season. When it comes to performances of that size, it’s hard to feel confident one way or another. I believe he could be as good, or better than her showed in those 63 games.

He posted a .270 batting average with a .328 on-base percentage and .477 slugging percentage. If you were to extrapolate his homer and RBI totals to a 162 game season, he would have hit 33 home runs and driven in 95 runs. The Reds haven't had a cleanup hitter that's capable of posting those numbers in a long time.

Encarnacion-Strand showed an ability to attack each at-bat cerebrally. He spent the first few weeks acclimating to the game and went off toward the end. For the final two weeks, he had an OPS of 1.105, while still having just a league average BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) of .296.

All of the metrics that explain the quality of contact he gets, which should translate into more success this season. He will be a huge part of the Reds lineup in 2024.

Noelvi Marte

The smallest sample size on the roster, Marte ended the season on a 16-game hitting streak that is causing much of the hype surrounding his 2024.

However, the hitting streak isn't the only reason to be excited about him.

TJ Friedl and Spencer Steer were considered candidates for team MVP and both had strikeout rates below where the rest of the league finished. So did Marte. His BABIP is very high, but so is his contact quality. The BABIP coming down will affect his numbers, but it shouldn’t crater. Marte can smash the ball and he can fly. Marte's sprint speed is in the 91st percentile.

Marte may have to win a starting job out of spring training, but he has the talent to do it. Even when the BABIP is taken out and you look at his expected batting average based on his quality of contact, Marte still has a xBA (expected batting average) of .298. Marte should be considered a favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year.

Will Benson

You could combine the games that Marte and Encarnacion-Strand played and they wouldn’t equal Benson’s total. He still has just 136 big league games under his belt. He had a greatly increased average exit velocity this past season and showed an innate ability to draw walks.

His performance last year was key, but can he keep it up? There’s two reasons why Benson will be a key member of the Reds, moving forward: limited exposure to lefty pitchers and improved route running in the outfield.

The Reds have operated with a philosophy of limiting their left-handed hitters’ exposure to left-handed pitchers. The idea is to put everyone in the best position to succeed. Benson hit .146 in 41 at-bats and had almost five times as many strikeouts as walks. As the Reds will have no room for error, and no time to let certain players “prove it,” its conceivable to believe Benson will once again face limited playing time against left-handed pitchers.

His routes in the outfield have been the root of his defensive issues. Usually when you talk about route running, you think receivers in football. It is just as important for outfielders. He has a solid arm but constantly was caught either out of position, or missed a ball because he didn’t get to it fast enough. Continued playing time will mean continued development of his route running.

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