Astros-Royals Blockbuster Trade Idea Sees KC Cut Ties With $45 Million All-Star

It's becoming impossible to predict what the Kansas City Royals will do at the trade deadline.

From series to series, the Royals can shapeshift from a team that looks dead in the water to a plucky bunch that deserves new additions. The latter has been the case this week, as the Royals have won three straight over the Pittsburgh Pirates, including the last two in dramatic fashion.

Still, one bad week could put the 46-48 Royals behind the eight-ball in the American League Wild Card hunt. That, in turn, could convince the Royals the best course of action is to part ways with their most consistent starting pitcher of the last two years.

On Thursday, ESPN's Jeff Passan hinted that 2024 All-Star Seth Lugo could still be traded. And Passan also named the Houston Astros as the star's "best match," or team that could benefit the most from Lugo's services.

"The Astros lost Alex Bregman to free agency, traded Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs, have spent most of the season without Yordan Alvarez, their best hitter, and currently sport a rotation that includes 26- and 28-year-old rookies. There is no reason they should be this good. And yet they are," Passan wrote.

"So even if the cost is heavy and eats into a farm system that's among the worst in MLB, targeting a pitcher of Lugo's ilk would give them among the nastiest postseason rotations in the game and further entrench the Astros as a force. Lugo's peripherals suggest he's in line for regression but even if his ERA does jump from its current 2.67 mark, Lugo's nine-pitch mix gives him the flexibility to adjust in-game -- a luxury shared by only a handful of starters in the game."

In 50 starts as a Royal, Lugo now sports a 2.90 ERA in 307 2/3 innings. He was the runner-up for American League Cy Young honors last season, and though he missed a few starts with a finger issue this season, his rate stats have actually been better.

So while Lugo's three-year, $45 million contract turned out to be a huge bargain for Kansas City, there's no way they keep him for the third year of that deal, which is a $15 million player option. Maybe they'll shoot for a reunion in the winter, but the price will be a lot higher.

Trading Lugo and bringing him back as a free agent isn't off the table either. But of course, the worst of all scenarios is not trading him, missing the playoffs, and losing him for nothing at all.

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