Way-Too-Early Royals Roster Outlook for 2023
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With the re-signing of Adalberto Mondesi, the Kansas City Royals have essentially pulled themselves out of the running for any significant upgrades in this year's free agency cycle — at least in terms of offense. In this writer's opinion, though, not acquiring pieces this year is smart. There needs to be a complete evaluation of the youth, which can't happen if they're lagging behind space fillers on one-year deals.
The main issue with the Royals is finding adequate space on the diamond to squeeze in all of that talent. Last year, seven Royals appeared in 100 or more games and only three (Salvador Perez, MJ Melendez and Bobby Witt Jr.) had an OPS above .700, so it's safe to say that there's a finite amount of nailed-on players for this years squad. One of those players is Vinnie Pasquantino, who didn't eclipse the 100-game mark but was undoubtedly the best bat the Royals had (team-best .832 OPS).
One look up and down the Royals' roster shows that they have plenty of exciting athletes but not a lot of clarity as to where those athletes will play. Take Mondesi, for example. Despite his inability to stay healthy and produce, he has been given another chance due to his elite athleticism. The question is, where and when does he play?
Pitching is a whole other can of worms that will require its own article. For now, let's look at the current positional outlook for Kansas City and evaluate the club's current players and prospects, as well as discuss whether there are free agents they should consider bringing in.
Catcher
Despite his advanced age, poor defensive metrics and some odd vibes stemming from an article on The Athletic, Perez still has to be penciled in as the top option behind the dish. Melendez is a great athlete who needs to find an everyday position he can actually field that won't eat away at that athleticism.
Resident backup catcher Cam Gallagher is no longer on the team. The Royals have an intriguing prospect in Luca Tresh, who posted solid offensive numbers in both Single- and Double-A last year but is still at least a year away from seeing 'The Bigs.'
The best option for the Royals to fill the depth chart would be to hit free agency for a catcher and look for one they could sign to a cheap one or two-year deal. If they want an all-defense backup, the choice is easy Austin Hedges, who could mentor Melendez and possibly even Perez on the elusive art of pitch framing. For a backup that can offensively bring more to the table, Jorge Alfaro is interesting and brings good athleticism.
First Base
What an absolute mess this position is. Nick Pratto was billed as a more powerful version of Eric Hosmer and while he did flash his potential at some points last year, the Royals essentially gave up on him by sending him down to the minor leagues. To be blunt, Pratto had one good minor league season that helped rebuild his prospect status but his game involves a lot of inconsistency. If you're looking for someone the Royals might flip for a boost in starting pitching, Pratto is not a bad place to start.
The reason the Royals can do this is that Pasquantino had a standout rookie season and has become a cult hero amongst the fans. (It also goes to show that solid performance and a unique name are all you need to develop a following as a baseball player.) All jokes aside, for as many questions as Pasquantino had about his defensive ability, he put up very similar metrics to what Carlos Santana did and looked like an adequate fielder at first base.
Ryan O'Hearn is still in Kansas City, and so is Hunter Dozier. As a result, those two will almost surely get reserve reps at the position, making looking for potential options outside the organization a relative waste of time.
Second Base
Even as a card-carrying member of the 2021-2022 Nicky Lopez Hype Squad, last year was an absolute disaster of a season. On the one hand, the team rallied around him as a leader. On the other, he's a liability offensively and his offensive skill set is phased out of the league. Results have shown that Lopez can't be counted on to be an everyday option.
Mondesi and Michael Massey offer more upside than Lopez, and the Royals have seemed bound and determined to make their Mondesi experiment work no matter the cost. Massey should be given a legitimate chance to win the job in spring training and at the beginning of the season. His OPS+ numbers weren't great but were better than anything Mondesi has produced the past few years and his defense projects to be great.
For the Royals to make a move in free agency to upgrade the position, they will first need to trade either Lopez, Mondesi or Massey (possibly with Pratto) to make room for a new addition. There's really only one option to discuss: Jean Segura, who has been productive over his entire 11-year career. The only issue is that the Royals would have to offer at least a four-year deal for his services to make sure that he's still on the team when they are ready to contend, and by that time, he'll be at least 36 years old.
Shortstop
Witt was never going to live up to all the expectations thrust upon him and while he had a solid rookie campaign, he struggled at points. His defense is a major concern because there should be no reason why a player that can join the 20/20 club as a rookie should have a WAR of just 0.8. To put that in perspective, Nate Eaton played in 106 fewer games than Witt and posted a WAR of 0.9. His defense was a problem, which alone might rule him out of contention for this spot.
For a good reason, Maikel Garcia is the new darling of those who follow the Royals' minor league system. He has been the best everyday player on Tiburones de La Guaira in the Venezuelan Winter League and proved that he could handle himself offensively in the minors and showed competence in brief usage in the majors. Garcia will be the most-watched prospect at spring training because if he explodes in Surprise like he's done in Venezuela, he could be the Royals' starting shortstop next season.
Mondesi is, once again, possibly left on the outside looking in as well. There's no use in looking for any help from the outside because the market is top-loaded with players the Royals can't afford and the ones they can afford will end up being trade bait at the deadline.
Third Base
Preferably, Witt would transition to third base this offseason (despite the Royals' insistence on him being at short) because it would allow more flexibility in a position of great need. Hunter Dozier can't be allowed to be this team's everyday option at the hot corner, and fans that have watched the Royals for a while know why.
Outside of Witt, the pickings are pretty slim. Eaton and Melendez are both potential options, but neither is a natural fit for the position. Luckily for the Royals, Cayden Wallace is a third baseman and excelled at Single-A this year, posting a solid .837 OPS with the Columbia Fireflies. However, many scouts believe he'll end up as a right fielder in the pros. He is not a bad fallback option, but he's still at least two years away from being a potential everyday player.
Pickings are slim in free agency, with the best options being 38-year-old Justin Turner and 37-year-old Evan Longoria. Unfortunately, the age of both players rules them out of being long-term members of the Royals. If they need an emergency option to fill the position, though, they should be able to get either of them for under $8 million.
Outfield
Another nailed-on player for the Royals this year should be Drew Waters, who posted an .803 OPS in 32 big-league games in 2022. The Royals spent a first-round pick to acquire the former top overall prospect for Atlanta, and he showed his value to the organization immediately. Where does he play? His best defensive metrics were in left field, and his worst were in center field.
Based on pure performance alone, Edward Olivares should have an everyday spot in this lineup. The question with Olivares has always been health and whether the Royals want him to be a part of their future. There have been Twitter rumblings about a possible reunion between Andrew Benintendi and the Royals but, if given a shot to prove himself, Olivares could possibly provide a very similar offensive output.
Michael A. Taylor has been as advertised since the Royals signed him. Whether or not that is a good thing depends on your point of view. He's a great defender that provides below-average offense, and you can get away with having one of those players on your roster. His long-term future is a bit cloudier but for this season, he should fill the role the Royals need him to. Mondesi is also a potential candidate for outfield reps. Wallace and Gavin Cross are hopefully the future for the Royals in the outfield. Eventually, the club will ideally have a trio of Wallace, Waters, and Cross patrolling the grass.
This year's outfield class for free agency is full of intriguing short-term options, but don't expect anything significant from Kansas City. With all that being said, here is my way-too-early roster projection for the 2023 Royals' positional players (assuming there are no trades or free agent signings):
- C: Perez
- 1B: Pratto
- 2B: Massey
- SS: Garcia
- 3B: Witt
- OF: Melendez, Taylor, Waters
- DH: Pasquantino
- Bench: O'Hearn, Dozier, Olivares, Mondesi, Eaton
- Missed the cut: Lopez, Kyle Isbel
