Tigers Embrace a New Way to Build a Star-Studded Rotation

On Wednesday, while the Tigers were engaged in the traditional approach to building a team—that is, trying to crush their homegrown star in salary arbitration—they were also busy getting to work on the hot new approach: getting a free agent to take a gigantic, short-term deal to turn them into a championship contender.

Detroit lost its case against double-reigning American League Cy Young Award-winning lefty Tarik Skubal and will pay him an arbitration-record $32 million this year, rather than the $19 million the team proposed. Employing him at all still counts as a win. So does what the Tigers negotiated with his new rotation mate, the best pitcher on the market, 32-year-old Framber Valdez: a three-year, $115 million deal with an opt-out after two years. That $38.3 million average annual value marks a new record for a left-handed pitcher, topping Blake Snell’s $36.4 million with the Dodgers.

There are two ways to sign a major free agent: You can get him to bite on a short-term, high-dollar contract such as this one, or you can try to stretch to something with more years, like the seven-season, $210 million pact righty Dylan Cease signed with the Blue Jays in December. It’s hard to persuade a player to take the first one, and it’s hard to persuade your owner to take the second. But every executive would prefer the flexibility of the former, and in recent years, the good teams have begun leaning into that strategy.

Indeed, you know it’s good business because the Dodgers keep trying to do it. Before the 2019 season, they reportedly offered Bryce Harper $180 million for four years; the $45 million a year would have broken the AAV record by nearly a third. Harper instead took $330 million over 13 years from the Phillies. A year later, Los Angeles explored a similar structure for Anthony Rendon, who instead went to the Angels for seven years and $245 million. The Dodgers finally got someone to say yes when Trevor Bauer’s anticipated market collapsed and he took their three-year, $102 million offer with opt-outs before the ’21 season.

In December, they snatched reliever Edwin Díaz from the Mets with a three-year, $69 million deal; last month, they added right fielder Kyle Tucker for $240 million over four years with opt-outs after he reportedly turned down a longer-term offer from the Blue Jays.

At this point, L.A.’s back-to-back titles are enough of a draw to get even players who are largely without flaws to compromise on contract terms. Other teams have to work with wrinkles. Infielder Bo Bichette, for example, sprained his left knee in September and missed most of the playoffs. The best long-term offer he got was from the Phillies for seven years and $200 million; when the Mets swooped in with three years, $126 million, two opt-outs, he said yes.

For Valdez, the concerns are not with his health. Indeed, his left arm is one of the surest commodities in the game, at least in the regular season: He ranks No. 2 in innings pitched over the past four years, with 767 2/3 (an average of 192 per season), and No. 4 in ERA among pitchers who threw at least 600 innings in that span, with a 3.21. Teams doubt only his makeup. He has been open about working with the mental skills coach with the Astros, where he spent the first seven-plus years of his career, to manage his emotions. His playoff starts have been volatile. And then there was the incident this August when, two pitches after a dispute over a pitch that led to a home run, he crossed up catcher César Salazar and showed no concern when the ball hit him. (Both Valdez and Salazar insisted the cross-up was unintentional.)

But on a two- or three-year deal, those questions don’t really matter. He doesn’t have to mentor their younger players. He just has to get outs, which he does better than almost anyone in the game. This is likely the Tigers’ last shot with Skubal, who can become a free agent after this season. They were the best team in the AL until Sept. 2, when their historically precipitous late-season swoon nearly cost them a spot in the playoffs. Until Wednesday, they were a piece away from improving on that season. Now they’re a title threat—and a new model for how to get there.

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