Tarik Skubal Is Primed to Revolutionize MLB’s Salary System

The Tigers ace enters Wednesday’s arbitration hearing with the goal of setting a precedent for players in their final season before free agency.

Tarik Skubal has won back-to-back American League Cy Young Awards. | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

The MLB Basic Agreement runs 440 pages, about the same as “A Tale of Two Cities,” Dickens’s master work set before and during the French Revolution. The Basic Agreement is the decidedly denser read, but if you look closely enough you will find its own backdrop of revolution. It’s right there buried in section E-10(a).

“This,” says one high-ranking club executive, “is the ultimate market-changing weapon. We’ve talked for years about this. Almost nobody uses it.”

Until now. The revolution is here. Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal and his agent, Scott Boras, have declared it so. Skubal is scheduled to have his arbitration hearing heard Wednesday in Arizona. It is historic, and not just because of the record gap between the asks by Skubal ($32 million) and the Tigers ($19 million). If he wins, it could change the economics of the game, especially for young stars such as Paul Skenes and Gunnar Henderson.

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Skubal’s potentially ground-breaking case

Skubal and Boras are relying on section E-10(a) to win their case. It allows players with five years of service time—entering their platform season before free agency—to compare themselves to any player, not just those in their service class. 

Arbitration cases with less than five years of service time follow more rigid guidelines, except for “special accomplishment,” such as an MVP or Cy Young award. “It’s pretty much cut and paste,” the executive said.

The E-10(a) provision blows up such a formulaic approach. It is found under the heading “Criteria” under arbitration rules. It reads, with boldface added for emphasis:

The arbitration panel shall, except for a Player with five or more years of Major League service, give particular attention, for comparative salary purposes, to the contracts of Players with Major League service not exceeding one annual service group above the Player’s annual service group. This shall not limit the ability of a Player or his representative, because of special accomplishment, to argue the equal relevance of salaries of Players without regard to service, and the arbitration panel shall give whatever weight to such argument as is deemed appropriate.

The wider berth means Skubal can argue his case in the context of contracts signed by pitchers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander ($43.3 million annual average value), Zack Wheeler ($42 million), Jacob deGrom ($37 million) and Blake Snell ($36.4 million). That’s why Skubal’s filing number is so high relative to his class. It’s an aggressive approach many elite players and agents opt not to use. More risk means a greater chance of losing. Setting precedent is more difficult.

“Often, the agent is worried about losing a hearing and losing a client,” the executive said when asked why players don’t push the envelope more often. “But if you go more often and win just once or a few times, it can be the ultimate game changer.”

Tigers aiming to keep status quo

The Tigers’ number is more reflective of standard operating procedure in arbitration. Detroit came in just below the record $19.75 million arbitration-based salary of David Price 11 years ago. (That’s $27.4 million in today’s dollars.) Price in 2015 was 86–51 with a 3.21 ERA and a 121 ERA+. Skubal has 455 fewer innings but better rate stats: 54–37 with a 3.08 ERA and a 135 ERA+. Price had one Cy Young Award win and one runner-up. Skubal has won two Cys.

A win for Skubal could mean that five-year service players could argue closer to their free agent value than ever. For instance, Price after that 2015 season signed a seven-year deal with Boston for $217 million, earning a 57% raise in average annual value.

Likewise, Shohei Ohtani went from $30 million as a five-year player (without filing for arbitration) to $46 million, a 53% raise.

But it’s not just about the elite stars. As a five-year player, Dylan Cease earned $13.75 million. After a good, but underwhelming season (8–12, 4.55 ERA), his value increased by 82% as a free agent who signed with Toronto for seven years and $210 million.

If Skubal wins, the platform value of stars such as Skenes and Henderson could creep closer to their free-agent value, which could force more difficult decisions for clubs when it comes to extensions or trades. If he loses, the status quo is affirmed.

How an arbitration hearing works

Barring a last-minute settlement, both Skubal and the Tigers will argue their case in front of a three-person panel. The player presents first, then the club. Initial presentations are limited to one hour, with some special accommodations. Each side then gives a rebuttal and summation of one half hour. The player and club may also then give another brief rebuttal, called a surrebuttal.

The two sides can use only publicly available statistics, but not those derived from Statcast or performance technology, even if those metrics are publicly available.

The panel uses as a guideline the midpoint between the player’s number and the club’s number, or $25.5 million in Skubal’s case. If it decides his value is less than the midpoint, he is awarded $19 million. If it decides his value is above the midpoint, he is awarded $32 million—that’s the game-changing number.

A win for Skubal would break the arbitration record salary of $31 million set by Juan Soto in 2024. More importantly, it would be a raise of $21.85 million, more than twice the record arbitration raise of $9.6 million for deGrom in 2019. That kind of increase would be revolutionary.

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