Tom Verducci’s 10 Thoughts On Kyle Tucker’s Record Dodgers Contract

From what the former Cub will provide to a loaded lineup to Tucker’s closest historical comp, here’s everything to know about the massive free agent deal.

Tucker joined the Dodgers on a four-year, $240 million deal Thursday, according to multiple reports. | Erik Williams-Imagn Images

In addition to the draw of their money, the Los Angeles Dodgers are baseball’s premier destination team. Want top dollar, a second private team plane, state-of-the-art support and training staff and the best shot at winning the World Series? Look no further than the Dodgers, as their signing of free agent outfielder Kyle Tucker proved once again.

No team can compete with them. Just ask the Mets. Not even Steve Cohen’s money could keep Edwin Díaz or Tucker from jumping aboard the Dodgers’ train. Four years and $240 million for a guy who has never hit more than 30 home runs? Now that’s flexing your financial biceps.

So, cue the worn-out ballad about how the Dodgers are ruining baseball, about how they are paying a guy $60 million a year who has received serious MVP consideration once and is likely to hit fifth in their lineup. But dang, this is fun to have a legit baseball dynasty again, just waiting to see which team can pick them off in a playoff series.

Here are 10 things you need to know about Tucker, the Dodgers and the contract:

Ten Things to Know About Kyle Tucker’s Signing With Dodgers

1. The contract is groundbreaking. Yes, Shohei Ohtani is making $70 million per year ($46 million if you count present day value because of deferrals), Juan Soto is making $51 million and Aaron Judge $40 million. But those are all long-term deals that pay those players through ages 38, 39 and 39, respectively. The Dodgers just set a new market for buying only prime years. They paid $60 million a year without having to worry about a decline phase or the accounting gymnastics of adding years to lower the AAV.

2. Opt outs after years two and three? Really? Because there is more money out there? Because the Dodgers might not be very good? Hey, why not ask for the moon. 

3. Tucker is not a franchise player. He has made half of his career starts hitting fifth or lower. He has never hit more than 30 home runs and finished in the top 10 in MVP voting once. In that sense, he picked the right team. The Dodgers are the only outfit where a $60 million a year player can blend in as a complementary player without the expectations of carrying a team.

4. So, what makes him great (and greatly paid)? He does many things well, especially controlling the strike zone, one of the greatest predictors of continued success. Last season, Tucker was one of only three players who ranked at least in the 85th percentile in walk rate, strikeout rate and chase rate. The others were Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of Toronto and Geraldo Perdomo of Arizona.

5. You thought the Dodgers were good last year? The Dodgers—the team that just won the World Series for a second straight time—essentially replaced Michael Conforto with Tucker, 40 starts by Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May with full seasons of Ohtani and Roki Sasaki and Tanner Scott and his 4.74 ERA with Díaz. Pat Riley is counting the three-peat residuals.

6. Entering his age 29 season, Tucker’s best career comp is Hall of Famer Larry Walker.

Tucker is one of only 11 left-handed hitters at this age with 100 homers, 100 RBI and a .500 slugging percentage, and the first since Bryce Harper. But his ability to put the ball in play with those skills makes him even more of an outlier. Only two left-handed hitters reached those thresholds with fewer strikeouts: Goose Goslin and Larry Walker. Check out the similarity between Walker and Tucker:

Larry Walker vs. Kyle Tucker Stats Through Age 29

Player	HR	SB	SLG%	SO
Larry Walker	135	114	.504	498
Kyle Tucker	147	119	.507	546

Walker aged well. Over his next 10 seasons, his slugging (.608) increased and his batting average improved from .286 to .332. In this case, the Dodgers don’t have to worry about aging curves. They are buying the age 29, 30, 31 and 32 seasons of Tucker—the prime of a great player with no decline phase attached. 

7. This doesn’t mean the Dodgers will threaten the 116 wins of the 2001 Mariners. Ever since the Dodgers put their foot to the floor to win 111 games in 2022—only to go one-and-done in the playoffs—they have de-emphasized running up a high regular season win total in favor of workload management to reach October with gas in the tank.

They won “only” 93 games last year. Four teams won more. The method is spreading. No team has won 100 games two years running. Expanded playoffs without a huge incentive for a high win total means Los Angeles, with its older roster, will continue to play the regular season conservatively.

Tucker is consistent on both sides of the plate, which will provide the Dodgers with a reliable contributor against righties and lefties. | Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

8. Tucker is platoon neutral. He is an opposing manager’s worst nightmare. He slugs .508 against righties and .505 against lefties.

9. His defense is in decline—slightly. Tucker passes the eyeball test as an above average fielder, but the defensive metrics have him in a three-year decline since he won a Gold Glove in 2022. Injuries do seem to have limited his range and fearlessness. Just be careful applying defensive metrics as absolute measurements. They would have you believe that Tucker last year was worse than Teoscar Hernández in right field.

10. This is good news for Cody Bellinger, who is a better defender than Tucker and a bit less reliable as a hitter. The Blue Jays and Mets, losers in the bidding on Tucker, can turn their attention to Bellinger, putting pressure on the Yankees to add to their five-year offer if they want to retain him.

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