Assessing 3 hypothetical blockbuster trade proposals for Byron Buxton

The Twins almost certainly aren't trading Byron Buxton. The only way it could theoretically happen is if they get a massive offer and Buxton is willing to waive his no-trade clause.

In a new article, ESPN's David Schoenfeld laid out three hypothetical 'Godfather' trade proposals apiece for three star players — Paul Skenes, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Buxton — on teams with losing records. All three are unlikely to be moved before this year's deadline, but that hasn't stopped fans from speculating about it. Let's take a look at his three blockbuster Buxton offers.

No. 1: Philadelphia Phillies offer RHP Andrew Painter and OF Justin Crawford

This is the kind of offer that definitely would at least pique the Twins' interest. Not acknowledged anywhere in Schoenfeld's article is Buxton's no-trade clause, which feels like a significant oversight. But for the sake of this discussion, let's imagine there's a world where Buxton would consider waiving that clause to go to a contender.

Painter, the 13th pick in the 2021 draft out of high school, is a 6'7" righty who turned 22 this spring. He's ranked as the No. 2 pitching prospect (and No. 10 overall) in baseball by MLB.com. Painter was utterly dominant across three levels in 2022, but he then missed all of 2023 and 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. The results have been mixed this year (4.45 ERA with 64 strikeouts and 20 walks in 56.2 innings), but the ace upside remains obvious. Painter pairs an upper-90s fastball with excellent offspeed pitches and strong control.

Crawford was the 17th pick by the Phillies in 2022. The son of former MLB All-Star Carl Crawford, he's hitting .343 with 26 stolen bases and an .867 OPS as a 21-year-old in Triple-A this season. Crawford doesn't elevate the ball with power (just two home runs this year), but he's a career .323 hitter in the minors with an .827 OPS. In a world where the Twins trade Buxton, adding someone like Crawford would give them a potential replacement in center field. They also have Emmanuel Rodriguez as a Buxton replacement option, but he's struggled to stay on the field in the minor leagues. Crawford is ranked right behind Rodriguez and Luke Keaschall in MLB.com's top 50.

No. 2: Cincinnati Reds offer RHP Rhett Lowder, RHP Chase Petty and 3B Sal Stewart

This one would bring the Twins two intriguing arms — though neither one seems to have a ceiling quite as high as Painter's — and three of the Reds' top five prospects. Lowder, 23, is MLB's 26th-ranked prospect. He's only thrown 7.1 innings this season due to injury. Petty is also a top-100 arm who just happens to be a former Twins first-round draft pick. Traded to the Reds for Sonny Gray a few years back, Petty has big-time stuff. He struggled in his first taste of the big leagues earlier this year, but he's only 22 years old.

In this proposal, Cincinnati would hold onto Chase Burns, its top pitching prospect, and send its No. 2 and 3 arms instead. Would the Twins push for Burns in this hypothetical world?

Stewart is a former first-rounder who is a borderline top-50 prospect in his own right. The 21-year-old is hitting .310 with 10 homers, 13 steals, and an .861 OPS at Double-A this year. He has a chance to be really good.

No. 3: Kansas City Royals offer LHP Cole Ragans and LHP David Shields

Here's a different one: What if the Royals offered an established big-league ace in exchange for Buxton? Ragans is hurt right now, but the 27-year-old southpaw finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting last season after posting a 3.14 ERA and 223 strikeouts in 186.1 innings pitched. A Twins rotation including Ragans, Joe Ryan, and Pablo Lopez would be quite something. In this proposal, the Royals throw in a lottery ticket in Shiels, an 18-year-old lefty who was a second-round pick last year.

The issue with this one is that in-division trades are difficult to pull off. Would the Twins really want to risk facing Buxton over and over for years to come?

Which offer is best?

If I had to choose one of these, I'm going with the Phillies offer pretty easily. Painter is a potential ace who is just 22 years old. Crawford looks like a longtime big-league outfielder who could help replace Buxton's speed and defense (but not his power). That's the kind of haul it would take to get me to even consider trading Buxton, who has stayed healthy this year and had an unbelievable All-Star season for the Twins. If I'm gonna move a superstar-caliber player on a team-friendly contract — even one with a lengthy injury history — I'd need to get a huge return like that one.

Of course, it should be noted again that this is all hypothetical and extremely unlikely. The Phillies might not have any interest in making that trade, and Buxton would need to waive his no-trade clause. For several reasons, it remains very, very likely that Buxton isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

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