Twins have 3 of MLB's top 40 starting pitchers in one analyst's ranking

The big three in the Twins' rotation is one of the team's biggest strengths heading into 2025.

Sep 16, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez (49) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

The Twins have three of the top 40 starting pitchers in Major League Baseball for the 2025 season, according to a ranking from analytics-focused analyst Thomas Nestico. In his ranks of baseball's top 50 SPs, Pablo Lopez is 17th, Joe Ryan is 22nd, and Bailey Ober is 40th.

Only the Mariners (5), Dodgers (4), Phillies, and Braves also have at least three players in Nestico's top 50. Even if it's just one person's subjective list, that tells you a lot about the strength of the top three in the Twins' rotation, which is one of the big reasons for optimism with Minnesota ahead of this upcoming season.

My Top 50 Starting Pitchers for 2025 pic.twitter.com/CuExFNS33X

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) January 10, 2025

Lopez wasn't as good in 2024 as he was in his first Twins season the year prior, where he finished seventh in AL Cy Young voting, but his advanced metrics were still strong. He pitched to a 4.08 ERA with 198 strikeouts in 185.1 innings. Lopez will look to return to top-tier form in 2025 after a season where his strikeout rate dropped slightly and his home run rate rose above his career norms.

Ryan was having an outstanding 2024 campaign when a shoulder injury ended his year in early August. That was one of the factors that contributed to the Twins' late-season collapse that saw them miss the playoffs. Ryan had a 3.60 ERA and 147 strikeouts in 130 innings. Even more so than Lopez, his Statcast metrics suggested he was pitching better than those raw numbers indicated. MLB.com's outgoing Twins beat writer Do-Hyoung Park recently predicted that Ryan will earn AL Cy Young votes in 2025.

Lastly, Ober continued to show his upside last season. His numbers — 3.98 ERA with 191 strikeouts in 178.2 innings — aren't eye-popping, but they were skewed by a handful of blowup outings. There was an 11-start stretch from mid-June through late August where Ober was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. He has elite, frontline upside.

If Lopez, Ryan, and Ober can stay healthy and pitch up to their potential in 2025, there are very few teams that can match the ability of that trio. The Twins also feel good about the depth of their rotation, which, as currently constructed, would have Chris Paddack, David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Zebby Matthews among those competing for the final two spots.