9 Months Later, the Twins' Louis Varland Trade Still Makes No Sense

A little over nine months ago, as the final move in their stunning trade deadline fire sale, the Twins made the decision to send right-handed reliever Louis Varland to the Blue Jays. Toronto has been reaping the benefits of that foolish, ill-advised choice ever since.

On Monday, Varland was named the American League Reliever of the Month for March/April. Including his appearance at Target Field on Friday (May 1), he's thrown 17 innings this season and has allowed one singular earned run on 13 hits and 5 walks. To go with his 0.53 ERA, he has 28 strikeouts and a 0.74 FIP. Varland recently took over the closer role for the Blue Jays and has four saves in the last couple weeks. He's been one of the two best, most dominant relievers in all of baseball.

Louis Varland: 16 IP, 26 Ks, 0.56 ERA, 4 saves
Mason Miller: 15.1 IP, 29 Ks, 1.17 ERA, 10 saves

Your AL and NL Relievers of the Month for March/April! pic.twitter.com/qXrj4SvhcE
— MLB (@MLB) May 4, 2026

This hot start to 2026 comes after Varland set an MLB record for most appearances by a pitcher in a single postseason when he pitched in 15 games in Toronto's run to the World Series last fall. He's already a fan favorite in Canada for his bulldog mentality and almost un-hittable stuff.

It's also occurring as the Twins' bullpen has been an unmitigated disaster that has directly cost them several games already this season. Minnesota has gotten a collective 5.31 ERA from its relief pitchers this year, which ranks 28th of 30 teams. After dismantling their bullpen nine months ago and then doing very little to build it back up, the Twins' lack of reliable relievers has spoiled multiple outstanding performances from their starting pitchers.

It didn't have to be this way. The Twins didn't have to trade Varland. And if they hadn't, their 2026 season and future outlook might legitimately look quite a bit different.

Many of the moves the Twins made during their infamous end-of-July teardown made plenty of sense. Some of them involved trading a player with an expiring contract, like Harrison Bader or Willi Castro, for a prospect. Sending Jhoan Duran to the Phillies for Mick Abel and Eduardo Tait has aged very well thus far. Same with trading Griffin Jax to the Rays for Taj Bradley. The Carlos Correa trade, which was a pure salary dump, is its own separate conversation.

The Varland trade still makes no sense. He was a homegrown pitcher in more ways than one — a former Twins 15th-round pick out of his hometown Concordia University in St. Paul. He was under team control for five more full seasons after 2025. At the time of the trade, he had a 2.02 ERA in 49 innings pitched for last year's Twins. There was simply no need to deal away a guy who could've been a foundational piece of the bullpen for years and years and years to come.

Louis Varland | Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

Former lead executive Derek Falvey and the Twins traded Varland because they believed the value of the return made it worthwhile. But even if the book is far from closed on this trade, the odds that Kendry Rojas and Alan Roden wind up making the Twins look smart seem very slim.

Rojas, a left-handed pitcher who is just 23 years old, has a chance to turn into a solid arm, either as a starter or out of the bullpen. He has a 1.46 ERA in a small sample of 12.1 innings pitched for Triple-A St. Paul so far this year. He also survived two hits and three walks to throw two scoreless innings for the Twins in his MLB debut a couple weeks ago, filling in for the Twins while Kody Funderburk was on paternity leave. His fastball and slider give him some degree of upside.

Roden is a 26-year-old outfielder who has been a quintessential Quad-A player over the past few years. Since 2024, he's hit .313 with a .912 OPS in 515 Triple-A plate appearances and has also impressed in spring training with both Toronto and Minnesota. In 153 major league PAs, he's hit .191 with a .556 OPS. Roden had a strong spring this year but never had a chance to make the Twins' roster because of their glut of lefty-hitting outfielders. He hasn't played for Triple-A St. Paul in two weeks due to a shoulder injury.

Rojas and Roden remain complete question marks at the MLB level. The Twins swapped a stud bullpen arm with half a decade of cheap control for an unproven pitching prospect and a low-ceiling position player who doesn't fit into their roster construction in the slightest. The only realistic way this could still pan out for the Twins is if Rojas becomes either a No. 3 starter or a strong setup reliever and Roden turns into a 110 OPS+ bat in the big leagues. The odds of that happening aren't great.

Since being shipped off to Toronto, Varland has continued to ascend to new heights. If he was still in Minnesota, serving as the Twins' closer, the rest of the jumbled-up pieces in this bullpen would be a lot easier to fit together. What they're missing most is a shutdown guy in high-leverage spots. Varland has generated 1 Win Above Replacement so far this season, but it's easy to imagine the Twins having at least two or three more wins than they currently do in a world where they kept Varland around.

Trading him was a totally unnecessary mistake that will continue to haunt the Twins every time a late lead slips away, this year and beyond.

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