Fangraphs projects Twins to have best bullpen in baseball in 2025

As of this moment, with plenty of offseason left to go, Fangraphs' ZiPS projection system thinks the Minnesota Twins have the best bullpen in baseball.

ZiPS is a computer projection system developed two decades ago by Fangraphs' Dan Szymborski. It "uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends ... then factors those trends into the past performance of those players to come up with projections." Recent seasons are weighted more heavily, and it incorporates things like age curves and injury data as well as raw statistics and advanced metrics.

Here's what Szymborski wrote about the Twins' bullpen and how ZiPS views it:

Jhoan Duran ought to have a better season in 2025, and now that the Twins have announced that Griffin Jax won’t be moved back to the rotation in 2025, the two of them will form a deadly one-two late-inning punch. Brock Stewart is also projected to have a better season – though his sore shoulder will need to cooperate – and aside from Jorge Alcala and Michael Tonkin, ZiPS projects every significant Minnesota reliever to have an ERA under 4.00. The Twins don’t really need to make any additions here, either.

On paper, the bullpen is arguably the biggest strength of the Twins' roster heading into this season. ZiPS projects Duran, who had a surprising 3.64 ERA last season, to bounce back with an elite 2.36 mark in 2025. It forecasts some slight ERA regression from Jax (2.03 to 3.21) and Cole Sands (3.28 to 3.62) but still believes they'll be very good. Last year, Jax was one of the most valuable relievers in the American League.

There's some depth here, too. Stewart and Justin Topa have significant upside if they can stay healthy. Alcala and Tonkin are reasonable middle-inning options. Louie Varland could be a big piece if he's moved to the bullpen full-time instead of starting games. Ronny Henriquez is a wild card. The only lefties on the 40-man roster are unproven Kody Funderburk and Brent Headrick, but that isn't overly concerning. The Twins had a very good bullpen last year despite getting awful performances from lefties Caleb Thielbar, Steven Okert, and Funderburk.

On the whole, ZiPS projects the Twins to be in the 85-88 win range in 2025. That would put them in the mix in an AL Central division that was won by the 92-win Guardians last season. Even amid an extremely quiet offseason due to payroll restrictions imposed by the outgoing ownership group, the Twins have some intriguing upside this year. They've got an impressive top three in their starting rotation, a few star hitters who just need to stay healthy, and — at least according to one projection system — MLB's best bullpen.