Judgement day looms: Tom Kelly's 50-game rule haunts a lifeless Twins team

Minnesota is 15-35 in its last 50 games dating back to last season.

Apr 8, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Minnesota Twins third base Jose Miranda (64) reacts after a strike out during the fifth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Every season starts anew, but it's hard to disconnect an ugly start to this season from a horrendous finish to the last one. When you link the 2024 and 2025 Minnesota Twins, you get a 50-game sample size of putrid baseball.

Dating back to last season's collapse, the Twins are 15-35 in their last 50 games. That's a 48- or 49-win pace in a 162-game season.

Personally, the 50-game sample size hits a nerve. The late Dark Star, the longtime Minnesota radio personality, often recalled what former Twins manager Tom Kelly told him: don't judge a team until it's played 50 games.

For Kelly, 50 games was the threshold to determine whether a team was good, bad or somewhere in between. The 2025 Twins are 3-8, nowhere near the 50-game threshold, but it's hard to separate 2025 from 2024 since Minnesota did so little to change the roster this offseason.

Byron Buxton has been terrible. He's 7-for-41 with 16 strikeouts and only one walk. Despite that, he's a staple batting third against right-handed starters and leading off against lefties.

Carlos Correa had two doubles Tuesday night in Kansas City, but he grounded into a backbreaking, inning-ending double play with the tying run at third base the eighth inning. He has six hits in 40 at-bats to start the season.

Jose Miranda has struck out 13 times in 32 at-bats. That's a 40.6% strikeout rate. He probably won't be on the 26-man roster for long as Brooks Lee nears a return from an IL stint to begin the season.

Trevor Larnach is the regular cleanup hitter and he's batting .259 with a .557 OPS.

Catchers Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vazquez are a combined 7-for-43 — Vazquez has one hit.

The only batters who have looked halfway competent are Matt Wallner, Harrison Bader, Willi Castro and Ty France. But none of them are batting .300 and Bader is the only one hitting for power. Bader has three homers and 10 RBIs while Wallner, France and Castro have combined for one homer and seven RBIs.

Can Royce Lewis save the day? He's expected to miss at least three more weeks with a moderate hamstring strain, and he's not Mr. Reliable. The Twins simply can't count on him.

If we employ Kelly's 50-game rule, maybe it's too soon to pass judgement. But based on what we've seen and who this team is relying on, the Twins may be speeding towards one of the worst seasons in franchise history.