What to watch for in final 16 games of Twins' disappointing 2025 season

Another disappointing season for the Minnesota Twins is almost over. The final homestand of 2025 begins on Friday night against the Diamondbacks and continues with series against the Yankees and Guardians next week. The Twins will then wrap up their season with road series against the Rangers and Phillies.

In another life, these upcoming 10 games at Target Field could've meant packed crowds watching meaningful baseball, with a playoff spot or perhaps a division title still on the line. Instead, the Twins are 64-82 and are going to miss the postseason for the fourth time in five years. And like it has been for much of the season, the ballpark in downtown Minneapolis will continue to be fairly empty.

Still, there's baseball to be played and a few things at stake. Here's what to watch for over the final 16 games of the campaign.

Where will Buxton's numbers end up?

If there's one reason to tune into Twins games down this last stretch, it might by Byron Buxton, who has stayed fairly healthy and put together the best season of his career. Buxton hit his 31st homer of the season on Wednesday, a 396-foot opposite-field blast on a pitch well above the strike zone. He also has 22 stolen bases on 22 attempts. He's already matched Kirby Puckett (1986) as the only Twins with a 30-20 season.

Getting to 30-30 seems highly unlikely, although it's not impossible if Buxton decides to be super aggressive on the bases to try to get there. But something like 35-25 is very much in play. Buxton's .905 OPS is the best of his career, outside of 61 absurd games in 2021, and he continues to play elite defense in center field. Twins fans shouldn't take him for granted. It's a shame that he won't get to play in the postseason this year.

Can the Twins avoid 90 losses?

The answer is probably not. The Twins would have to go 9-7 down the stretch to avoid their first 90-loss season since they lost 103 in 2016. Four of the final five teams they play have winning records, and Arizona is just one game below .500, so that seems like quite the difficult task for a Twins team that has gone an AL-worst 38-62 in its last 100 games.

Sep 8, 2025; Anaheim, California, USA; Minnesota Twins manager Rocco Baldelli (5) walks back to the dugout during a pitching change in the seventh inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium. | Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

Lottery odds

It might ultimately be better if the Twins do get to 90+ losses. Right now, they're in line to finish with the third-best odds to receive the No. 1 pick in the 2026 MLB draft. But they're just half a game behind the Pirates (64-83) for the second spot behind the White Sox. The Braves, at fourth, are just one game ahead of the Twins in the standings. If you weren't aware, there are two teams with worse records than Minnesota — the Rockies and Nationals — who aren't eligible for a top-nine pick in next year's draft.

Starting pitchers heading into 2026

It's going to be very interesting to see what the Twins' starting rotation looks like on Opening Day next spring, and these final 16 games could have an impact. Will Joe Ryan or Pablo Lopez be traded in the offseason? Ryan is coming off of a rough outing but has had a fantastic All-Star season. Lopez is back healthy after missing a huge chunk of time due to injury.

It's been a brutal season for Bailey Ober, but he pitched well his last time out and will get a few more opportunities to finish strong. Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews, and Taj Bradley are also currently in the six-man rotation and will be competing with players like David Festa (injured) and Mick Abel for spots next year. These starts for the younger pitchers are meaningful evaluation pieces.

Royce and Luke

The Twins are hoping that Royce Lewis and Luke Keaschall will be two of the cornerstones of their lineup, alongside Buxton, for years to come. Lewis has had a rollercoaster season but has hit well lately, with 10 of his 12 homers coming since the All-Star break. Still, his season OPS is just .681 heading into Friday night. Keaschall has been sensational all year; he's hit .318 with four homers, 12 steals, an .872 OPS, and almost as many walks as strikeouts in his first 39 MLB games. If you're looking for optimism, he's a great source of it.

Attendance

With 10 home games left, the Twins' attendance at Target Field is just 1.55 million. They're almost certainly going to finish with their worst single-season attendance, 2020 and 2021 excluded, since 2000. Still, it'll be interesting to see where the exact number ends up. The ballpark probably won't be totally dead, given that they play a weekend series, host the Yankees (which means lots of their fans), and then another weekend series. Still, uh, plenty of good seats will be available.