Yankees Opening Day Lineup Prediction: Who Hits Leadoff?
In this story:
TAMPA — In less than one week, the Yankees will embark on the 2022 regular season, taking on the Boston Red Sox on Opening Day in the Bronx.
We know Gerrit Cole will be on the mound, toeing the rubber after an abbreviated spring training. But what about New York's starting lineup?
Here's a prediction of who manager Aaron Boone will pencil in on Thursday morning before those in pinstripes take the field at Yankee Stadium. Then, we'll break this down a little further with some analysis.
Predicting the New York Yankees 2022 Opening Day Lineup
1. Josh Donaldson, 3B
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
2. Aaron Judge, RF
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
3. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
4. Giancarlo Stanton, DH
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
5. Joey Gallo, LF
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
6. Gleyber Torres, 2B
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
7. Aaron Hicks, CF
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
8. Kyle Higashioka, C
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
9. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, SS
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Let's start with the leadoff spot, a place in the order where Boone has plenty of options.
In Josh Donaldson's entire career, the third baseman has only hit leadoff in seven different games (all in 2015, his MVP season with the Blue Jays). This spring, Donaldson has hit leadoff in each of his last five games played (including Sunday's Grapefruit League loss to Toronto in Dunedin).
"He is definitely someone I would consider in that spot," Boone said last month. "A guy that controls the strike zone like he does, ability to get on, power, great hitter, more at the top."
This would, of course, be a different story if DJ LeMahieu were in the starting lineup, but this is a direct result of this club's roster construction. With Isiah Kiner-Falefa playing shortstop, Donaldson at third, Gleyber Torres sliding over to second and Anthony Rizzo re-signed at first, there simply isn't a place for LeMahieu to play.
Boone has talked this spring repeatedly about the logjam of infielders on this roster, assuring that everything will sort itself out eventually. It certainly doesn't hurt to have depth, but it's also peculiar to see a team's best pure hitter on the bench. After all, LeMahieu hit leadoff 146 times last season.
Sitting on Opening Day is exactly what happened in 2019, LeMahieu's first season in pinstripes. He ended up finishing fourth in the AL MVP race that year, playing in 145 total games.
It's also worth noting that Boone has shown a propensity for hitting Rizzo first in the past. That's where the first baseman was penciled in during the AL Wild Card Game last fall, also against Nathan Eovaldi and the Red Sox. Rizzo homered in that game and has solid numbers against Eovaldi in his career (5-for-9). So don't be surprised if he gets the nod there on Thursday instead of Donaldson.
Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton hitting second and fourth, respectively, is no surprise. That allows Boone to slot a left-handed hitter between them in the three hole. You'll notice that trend here, balancing lefties and righties one after another.
While Joey Gallo might work his way into that spot later on, depending on his performance, it looks like Rizzo is the premier choice there (if he's not leading off), another tough out that can drive in runs but also work the count and put the ball in play.
After Gallo is Torres, going back from a lefty to a righty. Aaron Hicks, also a candidate to hit first, follows. Remember, Hicks flashed his elite ability to work walks and get on base back in 2020 (19.4 walk rate). He missed much of last season with a wrist injury.
Then, Kyle Higashioka and Isiah Kiner-Falefa hit eighth and ninth, respectively.
With the way Higashioka is swinging the bat this spring—seven home runs in nine games—he should be hitting cleanup on Opening Day. He provides some thump to the bottom third of the order to go along with his plus defense behind the plate. Kiner-Falefa's speed and low strikeout rate make him a second leadoff man in the nine hole. He's also shown some more pop this spring, changing up his swing and making a concerted effort to drive the ball gap to gap more often this season.
Again, all of this will be shaken up week to week as Boone and the coaching staff find ways to get LeMahieu in the lineup. When one of the other infielders inevitably sits, that'll result in a new-look lineup. Keep an eye on Boone's approach when Stanton periodically shifts to the outfield, opening up the DH spot.
Think this starting nine has the ability to take this team deep into the postseason later this year? Donaldson certainly thinks so.
"I like our lineup," Donaldson said after hitting his third homer of the spring on Sunday. "I like the mixture of guys that we have, we have guys that can drive the ball, we have guys that are patient, we have guys that get on base, we have guys that put the ball in play, can move runners that are going to really be tough at-bats up and down the lineup. As far as all that's concerned, I really believe that one through nine we have an opportunity to go out there and put up crooked numbers at any moment, but also be that team that can scratch and claw and fight and get one run at a time."
MORE:
- Why Aaron Boone Is Eager to Add Miguel Castro to Yankees' Bullpen
- Yankees, Mets Swap Relievers in Trade
- Yankees Opening Day Roster Prediction 2.0: What Changes After Jose Trevino Trade
Follow Max Goodman on Twitter (@MaxTGoodman), be sure to bookmark Inside The Pinstripes and check back daily for news, analysis and more.
