Bowl Projections: SEC uncertainty clouding postseason picture

My projections are based on the Capital One (Georgia) and Outback (South Carolina) bowls' historical tendencies to lean toward East Division teams. The Cotton

Stewart Mandel | Nov 26, 2012

Bowl Projections: SEC uncertainty clouding postseason picture /

My projections are based on the Capital One (Georgia) and Outback (South Carolina) bowls' historical tendencies to lean toward East Division teams. The Cotton has first choice after the Capital One and will almost certainly lock up West team Texas A&M -- unless the Orlando game gets Johnny Football Fever. In my scenario LSU slips to the Chick-fil-A Bowl, but the Tigers could well go to the Cotton or Outback. There's also the possibility that South Carolina could slip to the Gator Bowl, since the Chick-fil-A is obligated to take Clemson from the ACC.

The good news is, I'm far more confident in my projected pecking order for the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Mountain West and Pac-12.

After a false alarm last week, there are officially 71 eligible teams for 70 spots (and Pittsburgh and Connecticut can still join the list), so no 5-7 teams will make bowls after all. Georgia Tech, like UCLA last year, has applied for an NCAA waiver should it lose to Florida State in Saturday's ACC title game to finish 6-7. As of this writing, that had not yet been granted. If the Jackets are eligible, they can fall no farther than the Sun Bowl in the ACC's lineup.

Finally, most of the bowls with open spots remain a guessing game. Do not buy plane tickets based on these projections if you're a fan of Ohio, San Jose State or Louisiana Tech. But more bowl invites will likely go out this week, at which point other pieces may fall into place.

As always, remember:

• After the No. 1 and 2 teams are slotted and replaced, the BCS at-large selection order this year is 1) Fiesta, 2) Sugar and 3) Orange. The highest-ranked champion from a non-automatic qualifier is guaranteed a BCS berth if it finishes in the top 12 or in the top 16 and ahead of an AQ-conference champion.

• Most bowls are not obligated -- I repeat, NOT OBLIGATED -- to choose in exact order of conference standings. For instance, "Big 12 No. 3" means "third selection of Big 12 teams," not "the Big 12's third-place team." Bowls often pick a team with an inferior record due to geography, anticipated fan travel, the need to avoid a regular-season rematch, or just plain politics.

Teams in bold have accepted a bid. * -- Replacement team for a conference without an eligible team.

Published Nov 26, 2012

STEWART MANDEL

Senior Writer, Sports Illustrated Stewart Mandel first caught the college football bug as a sophomore at Northwestern University in 1995. "The thrill of that '95 Rose Bowl season energized the entire campus, and I quickly became aware of how the national media covered that story," he says. "I knew right then that I wanted to be one of those people, covering those types of stories." Mandel joined SI.com (formerly CNNSI.com) in 1999. A senior writer for the website, his coverage areas include the national college football beat and college basketball. He also contributes features to Sports Illustrated. "College football is my favorite sport to cover," says Mandel. "The stakes are so high week in and week out, and the level of emotion it elicits from both the fans and the participants is unrivaled." Mandel's most popular features on SI.com include his College Football Mailbag and College Football Overtime. He has covered 14 BCS national championship games and eight Final Fours. Mandel's first book, Bowls, Polls and Tattered Souls: Tackling the Chaos and Controversy That Reign Over College Football, was published in 2007. In 2008 he took first place (enterprise category) and second place (game story) in the Football Writers Association of America's annual writing contest. He also placed first in the 2005 contest (columns). Mandel says covering George Mason's run to the Final Four was the most enjoyable story of his SI tenure. "It was thrilling to be courtside for the historic Elite Eight upset of UConn," Mandel says. "Being inside the locker room and around the team during that time allowed me to get to know the coaches and players behind that captivating story." Before SI.com Mandel worked at ESPN the Magazine, ABC Sports Online and The Cincinnati Enquirer. He graduated from Northwestern University in 1998 with a B.S. in journalism. A Cincinnati native, Mandel and his wife, Emily, live in Santa Clara, Calif.