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Scouts' forecast for 2010-11 season

Let's start with their view of the regular-season race in the East. Miami will run away with the No. 1 seed in conference, according to votes cast in our recent
Ian Thomsen|
Scouts' forecast for 2010-11 season
Scouts' forecast for 2010-11 season

Let's start with their view of the regular-season race in the East. Miami will run away with the No. 1 seed in conference, according to votes cast in our recent survey (the average rating by the six voters is in parentheses).

1. Miami Heat (1.0)2. Orlando Magic (2.2)3. Boston Celtics (3.0)4. Chicago Bulls (4.7)T5. Atlanta Hawks (5.2)T5. Milwaukee Bucks (5.2)7. Charlotte Bobcats (8.3)T8. Philadelphia 76ers (8.7)T8. Washington Wizards (8.7)10. New York Knicks (9.5)11. Indiana Pacers (12.0)12. Detroit Pistons (12.2)13. New Jersey Nets (12.3)14. Cleveland Cavaliers (13.5)15. Toronto Raptors (13.7)

The Heat were the only team in the league to receive a unanimous vote from the scouts (though you'll see below that there was little agreement on Miami's ultimate outcome). Chicago leapfrogged Atlanta and Milwaukee while jumping from No. 8 last year to a forecast of No. 4 this season, while the Wizards and 76ers -- under new coach Doug Collins -- are picked to tie for the final playoff spot. "I think Doug will get Elton [Brand] back on board," said one scout.

The most difficult team to gauge is the Wizards, who received four votes to reach the playoffs -- one scout rates them No. 6 in the East while two others place them at No. 12.

1. Los Angeles Lakers (1.2)2. Oklahoma City Thunder (2.8)3. Dallas Mavericks (3.7)4. San Antonio Spurs (4.3)T5. Utah Jazz (5.3)T5. Portland Trail Blazers (5.3)7. Phoenix Suns (7.2)8. Houston Rockets (7.7)9. Denver Nuggets (8.2)10. Memphis Grizzlies (10.3)T11. Los Angeles Clippers (11.5)T11. New Orleans Hornets (11.7)T13. Golden State Warriors (13.0)T13. Sacramento Kings (13.0)15. Minnesota Timberwolves (14.8)

The Lakers receive four votes to finish No. 1, with one outlier believing the Thunder will be superior over the 82 games. "I'll be surprised if Oklahoma City doesn't have the most wins," he said. "[Emerging second-year big man Serge] Ibaka is going to make the difference for them, but then the Lakers are going to beat them in the playoffs."

There is little agreement over the rest of this unsettled conference. One scout foresees the Thunder as no better than a No. 5 seed. Five teams received picks to finish No. 2 -- the Thunder (two such votes), Lakers, Mavericks, Spurs and Suns -- with Phoenix also receiving a vote to finish as low as No. 10.

Questions over Carmelo Anthony's status contribute to the uncertainty. "I'm assuming Denver will move Carmelo, which is why I'm dropping Denver down in the standings," said one scout, a belief repeated by two of his colleagues.

Conformity exists at the bottom of the conference, where all agree the bottom five teams -- including the Hornets and Clippers -- won't make the playoffs. "The only thing I can say for certain is Minnesota will be last," said a panelist.

Here are all of the predictions for the Western finals:

Lakers over Oklahoma CityLakers over Oklahoma CityLakers over DallasLakers over DallasLakers over San AntonioSan Antonio over Lakers

Everyone thinks L.A. will reach the NBA's Final Four, and one voter alone believes they won't advance, thanks to the rejuvenation of the Spurs by TiagoSplitter.

The Heat are almost as solid in the East. Every voter likes Miami to reach the conference finals in what is viewed as a three-team race.

Miami over BostonMiami over BostonMiami over BostonMiami over OrlandoBoston over MiamiOrlando over Miami

Lakers over MiamiLakers over MiamiLakers over MiamiMiami over LakersBoston over LakersSan Antonio over Orlando

The experts think five teams have a chance to play in June and four can win the championship. The Lakers are favorites but they're not a dominant pick, based on their tenuous win in Game 7 last year and the health concerns of KobeBryant and Andrew Bynum.

And yet, as much as Miami has established the agenda for this season, most of the experts believe the hype will backfire on the Heat while serving to inspire Kobe. "This whole thing could light a fire under Bryant," said one scout, "because he's still that good and he's going to realize he doesn't have too much time left."

The most surprising pick has Tim Duncan's Spurs beating Dwight Howard's Magic. "It will be the story of the great center bowing out," the scout said of Duncan, who hates to be viewed as a center, "against the young great center."

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Ian Thomsen
IAN THOMSEN

Senior Writer, Sports Illustrated Sports Illustrated Senior Writer Ian Thomsen, who joined the magazine in 1998, is one of SI's top basketball scribes. Along with writing columns and features for SI, Thomsen is a frequent contributor to SI.com. Before joining SI, Thomsen spent six years in Europe as the sports columnist for the International Herald Tribune, the world's largest international English-language daily. While at the paper Thomsen wrote about an array of sports for a global audience, including the major world and European soccer tournaments, the 1995 Rugby World Cup, Olympic Games, Ryder Cups, Grand Slam tennis events, Grand Prix auto races and, very rarely, cricket. Thomsen, who graduated from Northwestern with a journalism degree in 1983, was a feature writer for The National Sports Daily during its short, expensive run of 1990-91. His first job was with The Boston Globe, where he covered Doug Flutie's Boston College Eagles and all three of the Celtics-Lakers NBA Finals of the 1980s. Thomsen was a feature writer at SI before taking on the NBA beat fulltime in 2000. With Luis Fernando Llosa and Melissa Segura, Thomsen covered the 2001 scandal of overaged Little League pitcher Danny Almonte and wrote the first SI cover story on Kobe Bryant in 1998. Thomsen lives with his wife and two children near Boston.

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