2013 NBA free agency primer

Friday June 28th, 2013

Dwight Howard has said he will consider offers from the Mavericks and Rockets this summer.
Sam Forencich/Getty Images

A weak free-agency class was weakened when the Clippers traded for coach Doc Rivers this week, a move expected to secure a long-term commitment from point guard Chris Paul. That leaves one superstar available, and he isn't necessarily going to the highest bidder. Here's a look at what to expect when free agents are courted starting July 1:

The First Tier Of Free Agents

Chris Paul is staying in Los Angeles, and Dwight Howard might be leaving.

The likely abandonment of the free-agent stage by Paul enables Howard to have the attention all to himself. The Lakers are placing billboards throughout Los Angeles in hope of convincing him to re-sign, but it comes as no surprise that Howard is sending out signals that he'll be more likely to consider the offers of the Mavericks or Rockets. Howard might prefer Dallas because Dirk Nowitzki would step aside and enable the Mavericks to become Howard's team; James Harden is unlikely to be quite so accommodating, and for good reason.

MAHONEY: Five potential bargains in free agency

If Howard doesn't re-sign with the Lakers, then his departure isn't going to be as devastating as when he was traded by the Magic last year, and it's nothing like when LeBron James left Cleveland in 2010. Pau Gasol would step in as the Lakers' low-post center, and his expiring contract would leave the Lakers with cap space to sign one or more max free agents in 2014, depending on the future plans of Kobe Bryant.

There is some thought in the league that the Lakers would be better off without Howard, based on the view that he will never lead a team to the championship. Gifted as he is at 27 with an unmatched presence defensively around the basket, Howard may yet be able to make good on his potential.

If Howard decides to stay with the Lakers, then the luxury tax is expected to force the Lakers to consider waiving Gasol via amnesty. In that case several options would be available, including this: the Spurs could re-sign Manu Ginobili, renounce Tiago Splitter and have money under the cap to put in a competitive claim for Gasol. In that case, it could be argued that Gasol would have a greater impact on the championship race than Howard.

Second Tier

David West. He's likely to stay with the Pacers, a likelihood that only improved with the return of Larry Bird as team president. Indiana will improve by virtue of returning a healthy Danny Granger to the rotation and restoring some of the second-unit speed that was lost during Bird's year-long sabbatical.

Josh Smith. He won't be returning to the Hawks. Smith is a versatile talent entering his peak years, but he has never been an All-Star, and his salary will serve as a referendum on the impact of the new CBA. In previous years he might have been able to demand a max contract on the open market; that isn't expected to happen this summer.

Andre Iguodala. The Nuggets have talked about keeping him, and the market may help keep him in Denver by driving down his salary from the $16.2 million he could have earned next season (he opted to become a free agent instead).

Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson. The Jazz are expected to let at least one of their big men leave while remodeling their frontline around Derrick Favors.

Monta Ellis and J.J. Redick. It's unlikely to play out this way, but the Bucks could lose all three of their guards if restricted free agent Brandon Jennings is signed to an offer sheet worth more than Milwaukee is willing to spend.

Manu Ginobili. He is expected to re-sign with the Spurs for relatively cheap, which would help their chances of improving the roster and returning to the Finals next season.

Andrei Kirilenko. The Timberwolves versatile forward has yet to decide whether to opt out.

Other Notables

JR Smith. The reigning Sixth Man of the Year was ineffective after being suspended in the first round of the playoffs. How much are the Knicks willing to invest in him?

Tiago Splitter. Will the cost of re-signing him on the open market be prohibitive for the Spurs?

Carl Landry and Jarrett Jack. The Warriors may not be able to keep both of their key second-unit contributors.

Tony Allen. He may be the best perimeter defender in the NBA, but will that be a luxury the Grizzlies can't afford?

Kevin Martin. The Thunder may not be able to afford their sixth man, especially following his disappointing postseason.

Most Interesting Restricted Free Agents

Brandon Jennings. The Bucks guard has spoken of refusing to seek offers this summer in order to leave Milwaukee in 2014 as an unrestricted free agent.

Jeff Teague. The Hawks, flush with cap space, should be able to keep their explosive young point guard.

Nikola Pekovic. The Wolves must keep their dynamic young center if they hope to cash in on the potential of Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio going forward.

Tyreke Evans. The new ownership and management of the Kings face an interesting decision with the underperforming Evans, the former Rookie of the Year.

Two Gambles

Andrew Bynum. The Sixers' investment in rookie big man Nerlens Noel provided another sign that they're no longer interested in bringing back Bynum, who didn't play a minute last season because of knee problems. The best he can hope for is a short-term deal.

Greg Oden. The ever-intriguing center is expected to make his comeback next season with the Heat, Cavaliers or another suitor on an affordable stress-limiting contract.

Teams That Could Have $10M Or More In Cap Space

Atlanta Hawks
Charlotte Bobcats
Cleveland Cavaliers
Dallas Mavericks
Detroit Pistons
Houston Rockets
Milwaukee Bucks
New Orleans Pelicans
Philadelphia 76ers
Portland Trail Blazers
Sacramento Kings
San Antonio Spurs
Utah Jazz

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