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Top 100 NBA Players of 2018: Nos. 30-11

Our 30-11 countdown highlights some of the best point guards in the league. Where do Kyrie Irving, John Wall, Damian Lillard, Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry rank on our Top 100 list?

The Crossover is proud to offer our list of the Top 100 NBA players of 2018, an exhaustive exercise that seeks to define who will be the league's best players in the 2017-18 season.

Given the wide variety of candidates involved and the deep analytical resources available, no single, definitive criterion was used to form this list. Instead, rankings were assigned based on a fluid combination of subjective assessment and objective data. This list is an attempt to evaluate each player in a vacuum, independent of their current team context as much as possible. A player's prospects beyond the 2017-18 season did not play a part in the ranking process.

Injuries and injury risks are an inevitable component of this judgment. Past performance (postseason included) weighed heavily in our assessment, with a skew toward the recent. First-year players were not included. A predictive element also came into play with the anticipated improvement of certain younger players, as well as the possible decline of aging veterans. Salary was not taken into consideration. Otherwise, players were ordered based on their complete games. You can read more here on the limitations of this kind of ranking. To see our 25 biggest snubs from this year, click here.

Please feel free to take a look back to SI.com’s Top 100 Players of 2017,2016,20152014. A special thanks, as always, to those resources that make researching a list like this possible: Basketball-Reference, NBA.com, ESPN.com, Nylon Calculus, and Synergy Sports.

• Complete Top 100 breakdowns: 100-51 | 50-31 | 30-11 | 10-1

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30. Al Horford, Celtics

Never confuse who shoots most with who is most valuable. There are too many other ways to shape a basketball game, most of which come quite naturally to Horford—a star who tends to be appreciated most by those who have played with him. See the results of Horford’s playmaking up close and one cannot help but admire him. He doesn’t make demands. He doesn’t force any compromises to a team’s style of play. Horford (14.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.3 BPG) simply makes connections, moving around the floor as needed so he can always work as a pressure release. You might not turn to Horford in a single, high-stakes moment. Instead, you rely on him throughout a game to elevate any systems and teammates he comes into contact with.

Horford, fundamentally, is a player who creates opportunity. On every possession, Horford’s team can trust that he will supply what’s needed on offense and that he’ll know where to be on defense. The only real deficit comes on the glass; the defensive rebounding issues that plagued Atlanta for years followed Horford to Boston, isolating the independent variable involved. Playing Horford at center, especially, creates a pressing need for better team rebounding. Such is the cost of doing business with a player who offers so much of everything else. — Rob Mahoney

29. Kemba Walker, Hornets

An uneven, injury-derailed season for the Hornets camouflaged what was a strong campaign from Walker (23.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 5.5 APG). Charlotte’s only hope to compete came with their lead guard on the floor; when Walker was in the game, the Hornets approximated a top-five offense and a top-10 defense. That’s quite a demonstration of what Walker can do as a team’s best player, even if his game is best suited for more of a supporting role.

That isn’t an indictment. Walker has worked his way beyond the need for ball dominance by improving as a distance shooter (39.9% 3FG) and modifying his footwork to better serve catch-and-shoot situations. The player once completely reliant on his pull-up jumper now has so many more options available to him. So long as Walker is this fleet of foot, those quick jumpers off the dribble will be a part of his game. Where he’s shown growth is in using the threat of that shot to pursue others, effectively turning his opponents’ expectations against them. His first few years of NBA scouting reports have served only to make his counters and changes in direction that much more devastating. 

Scoring comes more naturally to Walker than passing, though he manages to keep a tidy offense through sound, low-risk plays. The same mentality has made him an impressive defender in spite of his small stature. Walker is handsy enough to be a steals threat, but over his time in the league has developed a sharp sense of defensive positioning. Only two players (Ersan Ilyasova and Marreese Speights) drew more charges last season. Execute a spin move and Walker is likely to beat you to the spot. Initiate a hard drive and Walker will recover to plant himself in the path. There are natural limits to how much disruption a 6’1’’ guard can muster. Walker’s best efforts push them as far as can be reasonably expected. — RM

28. DeAndre Jordan, Clippers

Don’t be fooled by his shaky free-throw percentage or the Clippers’ reputation as meltdown artists, Jordan (12.7 PPG, 13.8 RPG, 1.7 BPG) is one of the league’s most dependable producers. It’s freakish, really: The 6’11” center somehow managed to post the exact same scoring, rebounding, assist and turnover averages in 2016-17 as he did the previous season, down to the decimal, en route to All-Star and All-NBA Third Team selections. His game continues to be defined by durability, hyper-efficient finishing, volume rebounding and strong backline defense; last season he missed just one game, he led the league in FG%, he ranked third in rebounding, and he placed second among centers in Defensive Real Plus-Minus behind Rudy Gobert.

Any hopes that Jordan, 29, might expand his one-on-one arsenal or extend his scoring range outside the immediate basket area have subsided. And, with lob partner Chris Paul gone to Houston, it’s reasonable to expect Jordan’s scoring volume and efficiency to slip somewhat next season. While he led the league with a whopping 253 dunks in 2016-17, he couldn’t step up to provide enough scoring help for Paul when Blake Griffin was lost to injury during the playoffs. With a deeper offensive toolbox, Jordan would have a strong case as the league’s best all-around center. As is, he’s a perennial All-Star candidate who will be central to L.A.’s post-Paul plans. Jordan is tracking towards another massive payday next summer, and hopefully his free-agency experience won’t require any hostage-taking this time around. — Ben Golliver

27. Paul Millsap, Nuggets

Maybe it was minor injury issues. Maybe it was moving another year past 30. Maybe it was the loss of longtime frontcourt partner Al Horford and/or the arrival of Dwight Howard. Whatever the explanation(s), Millsap (18.1 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 3.7 APG) couldn’t quite duplicate his sensational 2015-16 campaign during his fourth and final season with the Hawks. A polished and unselfish two-way game kept the versatile power forward among the league’s top Real Plus-Minus performers and helped Atlanta push Washington in a first-round playoff series, but weak three-point shooting and less gaudy defensive stats pushed Millsap outside the top 40 in PER and Win Shares.

The 32-year-old Millsap’s offseason signing with the Nuggets on a three-year, $90 million contract looks like a wise move for both player and team, even if a return to the West’s deeper waters means his All-Star days are likely over. An ultra-adaptable player who can function in virtually any situation and with almost any cast of teammates, Millsap is ideally suited to life as a second or third option within a balanced, pass-heavy offense. He should find the support and structure he needs to thrive within what figures to be a potent Denver attack, and his pairing with center Nikola Jokic gives the Nuggets two unselfish frontcourt playmakers to keep defenses guessing. Don’t be surprised if his shooting efficiency rebounds thanks to a steady diet of better looks. If his offensive load lessens as expected, Millsap should be able to focus more of his attention on providing Jokic the defensive cover he needs. While it’s understandable that Atlanta’s overhauled front-office preferred to execute a full-scale rebuild rather than commit a long-term, big-dollar contract to their aging four-time All-Star, Millsap still brings plenty to the table and should help boost the Nuggets into the playoffs for the first time since 2013. — BG

26. Kevin Love, Cavaliers

Love has been undersold by his circumstances. To Cleveland, he is a shooter first and foremost—an accessory to the creative endeavors of LeBron James and, to this point, Kyrie Irving. To most any other team, Love could be something else entirely. He’s a shooter, to be sure, but also an effective passer, a post threat, and the kind of complete offensive player who could work as a fulcrum. Everything a team runs could swing on his abilities if it so chooses. It’s hardly Love’s fault that a team with the best player in the world did not.

That Love gives his team the choice is just part of what makes him interesting. Teams with clearly better options can lean on Love to stretch the floor, as the Cavs do, while working his periodic post-ups. What seemed an awkward fit at first has since become comfortable. Love is a more reliable spot-up shooter than when he first arrived in Cleveland, and better equipped to pick his spots. Those teams without first-rate alternatives could instead stretch Love’s game as needed – potentially doubling his assists while varying (and ramping up) his touches. Twice has Love averaged better than 26 points a game. There’s little reason to think he couldn’t do so again.

Rebounding is the bridging constant. It took Love time to balance his responsibilities on the glass with all else Cleveland asks of him. Then, in the last two years, it clicked; Love again is rebounding with the best in the league, pulling down a greater percentage of available boards than behemoths like Karl-Anthony Towns, DeMarcus Cousins, and Enes Kanter. No matter his limitations as a defender (which only seem particularly painful in the impossible matchup against Golden State), Love can always help his team seal up their defensive stands by securing the rebound that follows. — RM

25. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets

Give Jokic the most basic of ingredients and he will set the table with a feast. Any cutter who plays with him becomes an open threat on every possession. Shooters on his team find the ball delivered directly into their pocket just when the defense has shifted its attention. Other bigs are free to roam around the rim because Jokic can run an offense from the top of the floor, setting up all manner of high-low delicacies. His is the gift of transformation, and through it a somewhat talented but well-intentioned team can become one of the league’s most potent offenses.

One can get so lost in the bending of Jokic’s impossible passes as to lose sight of the fact that he’s also one of the league’s better rebounders and a shockingly efficient scorer. Jokic doesn’t quite have three-point range and only went to the line for 3.1 free throws per game last season. Still he ended the year with the fourth-highest True Shooting Percentage in the NBA by finishing an absurd number of his post-ups (57.9%) and runners. The high paint is typically home to long, improbable hook shots and ill-fated floaters—close-ish shots that are too often unsteady and heavily contested. Jokic converted 65% of his attempts from that range, applying subtle punctuation to his breakout season.

All that’s holding Jokic back is the burden of proof facing all up-and-coming talent. We don’t yet know how effective a Jokic-centered defense could be, and there is fair reason for pessimism. No opponent has yet approached Denver with playoff-level scrutiny—or even particular regular season seriousness. Everything Jokic has done to this point is genuine. There is nothing fishy in his off-the-charts performance, merely room for some couching and qualification as the NBA catches up to what this upstart superstar does best. — RM

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24. Marc Gasol, Grizzlies

Marc Gasol is shooting more than ever without skimping on the assists, and lighting up the arc without neglecting his duties inside. There’s nothing to stop a player with such a diverse skill set from having it all—save for himself. And at long last, Gasol has taken his offensive game to the meaner, leaner heights he has long been capable of. 

For a center to turn a handful of long two-pointers a game into threes is in itself a noteworthy shift. When that center is making 38.8% of those shots (better than Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant, albeit on different sorts of attempts), his range becomes that much more consequential. Gasol ​(19.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.6 APG) is a different player than he was a year ago because on top of what he offers as a playmaker from the elbow and as a captain of the defense, he’s now one of the most prolific three-point shooting centers in a league that relies on them. The entire structure of the offense changes when a high screener and dribble hand-off initiator like Gasol can begin each play from beyond the three-point line. Stretching even those few feet beyond the arc eats meaningfully into an opponent’s room for error.

That's what makes Gasol so punishing. Other bigs just don’t have an answer for the fact that Gasol can move fluidly from the three-point line into a spin move hook shot in the space of two dribbles. There’s no need for a deliberate backdown when the defender never even has a chance to set his feet—especially when it’s hard enough as it is to actually bother the shot of a mobile seven-footer. Gasol’s defense is still there, albeit not quite at Defensive Player of the Year levels. Changes in shot distribution have led him to a six-year high in Effective Field Goal Percentage. Gasol—a team-first player, through and through—simply feels the freedom now to take what he wants. His team does nothing but benefit. — RM

23. DeMarcus Cousins, Pelicans

Those expecting Cousins (27 PPG, 11 RPG, 4.6 APG) to finally turn over a new leaf once he was set free from the Kings’ dysfunction are still holding their collective breath seven months later. The mercurial center had an unforgettable season given his awkward and unprecedented All-Star Weekend trade, but his arrival in New Orleans has yet to deliver a reputation revision. Instead, Cousins spent the stretch run to another lottery trip slowly gelling with Anthony Davis, serving a technical foul-related suspension, and posing plenty of lineup and stylistic questions for his new coaching staff. Firmly entrenched as the most prolific stat-stuffing center since Shaquille O’Neal, Cousins’s impact continues to be undermined by his emotional outbursts, turnover problems, foul trouble and inattentive stretches on defense.

Cousins’s scoring explosions and highlight plays go viral with ease, and his deep portfolio of skills—ball-handling, post moves, three-point range, and much more—is unmatched at his position. But the three-time All-Star is entering his eighth season having made little substantive progress on two key questions: “Does he make his teammates better?” and “Is he really trustworthy?” In fact, last season might have represented a step back on those fronts given the modest package the Pelicans had to surrender to acquire him and his so-so performance after the trade. Summer reports that Cousins has committed to improving his conditioning are promising, and his pairing with Davis will no doubt look better in November than it did in March. However, there’s no guarantee that Cousins, who is an unrestricted  free agent next summer, lasts in New Orleans through the trade deadline, especially if the fit questions persist. — BG

22. Blake Griffin, Clippers

The career reboot that Griffin (21.6 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 4.9 APG) so desperately needed fell into his lap this summer. With Chris Paul and J.J. Redick both leaving L.A., the three-time All-Star power forward takes over as the undisputed alpha dog for a Clippers team that will welcome all the scoring and playmaking he can muster. Given that his last three seasons were each marred by injury, Griffin finds himself at an unfortunate crossroads. Can he reclaim his All-Star form and carry a winning team with his scoring, passing and tempo-setting game? Or, will his accumulated health issues push the 28-year-old power forward towards an early-onset decline? Simply put, will he get back to being the old Griffin or, in a worst-case scenario, is he at risk of becoming the next Amar’e Stoudemire?

For now, Griffin remains a nightmare individual cover: he can bully smaller defenders, blow past slower defenders, step out to hit mid-range jumpers, initiate transition scenarios from his own defensive rebounds, run an effective two-man game with dribble hand-offs near the arc, and create offense with high-low passes to DeAndre Jordan. However, his jaw-dropping dunks have become less common in recent years, he hasn’t yet mastered a career-extending three-point shot, and he was never a true rim-protector on defense. In other words, if his burst and pop start to wane, he will find it very difficult to live up to the terms of his new five-year, $173 million max contract. Although it’s not yet clear exactly when Griffin will be back from a toe injury, his expanded post-Paul role should make for a fun and free-wheeling season once he does return. — BG

21. Kyrie Irving, Celtics

Leave it to one of basketball’s most polarizing stars to fully lean into the scrutiny by making the most heavily-debated trade request the NBA has seen in years. Irving (25.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 5.8 APG) had good reasons to want out of Cleveland: He’s 25 and ready to be The Man, he’s already a champion, and LeBron James’s future with the Cavaliers isn’t guaranteed. But he had good reasons to stay too: Cleveland was a near-lock to return to a fourth straight Finals in 2018, he had just enjoyed the top-scoring and highest-usage season of his career, and stars and role players alike have flocked to play with James for years. Irving isn’t just striking out on his own in Boston, he’s ditching one of the greatest players ever and setting up an instant rivalry with his former team.

Offensively, Irving is as creative and gifted as it gets, blending his signature, well-honed handle and deft finishing with total confidence, three-point range, and loads of shot-making ability. As the Celtics’ newly-minted No. 1 option, he has a chance to claim the NBA’s scoring title. But virtually everything else about Irving’s game—leadership, play-making for others, night-to-night focus, defense, and health—remains an open question. Indeed, the four-time All-Star point guard must prove that his way will work, without James, because Cleveland was truly awful from 2012 to 2014 when a young Irving struggled to lead the way. Can he drive a top-five offense like Chris Paul and Stephen Curry? Can he be a winning team’s defining personality for 82 games like Russell Westbrook and James Harden? Can he take his own team into the second round of the playoffs like John Wall, Kyle Lowry, and Damian Lillard? Can he inch closer to average for a starter at his position on defense and stay on the court for 75+ games? In the end, those are the questions that will validate Irving’s move to Boston and determine whether he vaults up the point guard pecking order next year. – BG  

20. Klay Thompson, Warriors

Thompson is inconceivably the fourth-best player on his own team, all because he has never let ego get in his way. Rarely will a 20-point scorer so graciously fall into the background. Should the Warriors need him to shoot, Thompson (22.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.1 APG) is ever willing to let loose. If the offense is finding fertile ground elsewhere (or even if his own shot has deserted him), Thompson will defend and curl just as hard, content to have indirectly done his part. Thompson’s game scales up and down effortlessly—from minute to minute and from game to game—so that his team can always draw exactly what it needs from him.

The rarity of that separates Thompson from most every other player in his class. No team should make Thompson its primary scoring option because he doesn’t have the ball skills to support that responsibility. Virtually any other role is fair game. Golden State won the title with Thompson as its second-leading scorer in 2015 and as a hot-and-cold streak shooter in 2017. He makes himself instrumental, regardless, because Thompson demands to be guarded even while at a standstill. His shooting can blow a game open without the slightest warning.

Those incendiary highs are a remarkable thing. It is not a stretch to say that Thompson’s hot hand laid out a return path to the 2016 Finals through scorched earth. It’s also not wrong to credit him, in some way, for Stephen Curry finding the perfect role. It’s because of Thompson’s ability to guard across three positions that Curry never really had to sweat his matchup. The toughest defensive assignments would always be accounted for. It’s also in part because of Thompson’s gravity that opposing defenses faced an impossible dilemma. Curry would have found his own way, but—as with the Warriors as a whole—it was Thompson who exaggerated his best attributes and mitigated his worst. — RM

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19. Kyle Lowry, Raptors

Lowry (22.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 7 APG) has fallen down a few pegs in the crowded conversation concerning the league’s top point guards, as he missed 22 regular-season games due to injury and then fizzled out amid nagging health issues during Toronto’s humbling postseason. When he was on the court, the hard-nosed, well-rounded floor general was as effective as ever, ranking in the top 25 of four major advanced statistics (PER, Win Shares, Real Plus-Minus, WARP), setting new career-highs in scoring, assists and three-point percentage, and leading the East’s second-best offense. An excellent pick-and-roll threat who improved Toronto’s offensive efficiency by nearly seven points when he was on the court, Lowry had success helming the Raptors’ starting unit and a lethal bench mob group. 

This summer, the 31-year-old Lowry cashed in his three consecutive All-Star seasons to the tune of a three-year, $100 million contract. That deal represented a career-best pay day, but its length and less-than-max total value appeared to reflect concerns about his age, durability and struggles to translate his big-impact play into the playoffs. After a busy offseason in which a good chunk of his supporting cast has turned over, it’s time for Lowry and the Raptors to re-frame their focus. Rather than running Lowry into the ground in pursuit of 50-win seasons that were hard to come by earlier in the franchise’s history, his playing time should be more carefully managed to ensure that he enters the postseason without any lingering health issues or built-up fatigue. Without another signature playoff run to his name, Lowry is at risk of fading further as a deep crop of younger point guards nips at his heels. – BG

18. Mike Conley, Grizzlies

David Fizdale sold Conley on a vision. Memphis had centered itself over the years through Conley’s careful stewardship—his even keel a defining force of a balanced offense. As Fizdale saw it, what the Grizz needed was greater abandon. Grinding out games as usual was an option, though it left Memphis particularly vulnerable to the NBA’s emerging arms race. A low-variance, post-heavy style could only get the team so far in a league dominated by dynamic scoring guards. Fortunately, the Grizzlies had just that sort of guard hiding in plain sight. It took some coaxing, but Conley upped his usage to a career-high 26.3% (higher than Kyle Lowry and Derrick Rose) in a revelatory season. For the first time in his basketball life, Conley came off of screens firing. His scoring leapt from 15.3 points per game to 20.5. He made 39% of his pull-up three-pointers and 40.8% of his three-pointers overall. Chipping away at Conley’s inhibitions even unleashed him into the isolation game, where the speedy point guard took Fizdale’s directives to heart. 

That Conley’s performance extended to a monster playoff series against San Antonio only reinforces the strength of his season. A solid defender and floor general is now a 20-point scorer posting the highest True Shooting Percentage of his career. It’s hard to imagine Conley, soon to be 30, improving on that kind of performance moving forward. Some regression to the mean could be in order. Nevertheless, Conley has pushed his way into a different tier of point guards, making contemporaries of stars like Damian Lillard, Kyle Lowry, and Kyrie Irving. This is where Conley lives now, and the stature his play demands. — RM

17. Damian Lillard, Blazers

Even at 27 years old, Lillard is still learning. There’s so much to explore when every defense he faces is rightly terrified of his jumper. Schemes are built to stop him from even taking shots, and still they cede 27 points per game without Lillard really pressing beyond what is reasonable. There are nights when Lillard settles when he shouldn’t and those when he isn’t seeing the full view of the game. But by and large, Lillard is filling exactly the role that’s set out for him—for which commanding attention is an essential part. Lillard is puzzling out in real time how to use all that attention to his advantage. His latest trick: manipulating defenders to get to his drive (and to to the free throw line) even more often. 

The cat-and-mouse game has been good to Lillard, who finished 58.6% of his shots in the restricted area last season, up from 51.9% the season prior. More of his heavily contested layups are ending in fouls, too, as Lillard feels his way through the nuances of creating contact. Making space comes naturally. Lillard has spent his entire basketball life trying to put enough separation between himself and his defender to hoist up a jumper. It’s knowing when to bump and how to fall that demanded some on-the-job training, the result of which has Lillard up to 7.3 free throw attempts per game.

Lillard’s credentials as a scorer are rock solid at this point. Most of his limitations are familiar, too; running an offense through Lillard means planning around his so-so passing abiity, while leaning on him for big minutes means coming to terms with his lacking defense. Most of what holds Lillard back on that end are misguided instincts. He tries to get around a screen but charts the wrong angle. He moves to cut off a drive but charts the wrong course. So much of playing high-level defense comes from an internalized sense of what to do when. Lillard doesn’t have it, though his willingness to try at least leaves room for realistic improvement. — RM

16. Gordon Hayward, Celtics

Painstaking development has given Hayward’s game layer upon layer, to the point that he’s become one of the most complete wings in the league. Offense could be run to feature Hayward sprinting around screens or isolating his defender, reading an opening for a backdoor cut or threading a pass to a teammate who had done just that. His evolution has made him both a real threat and a compelling decoy—a combination that Quin Snyder and the Jazz used to great effect last season. Players like Hayward make an offense ripe for misdirection.