The Next Month Will Determine the Sixers' Direction at the NBA Trade Deadline

One third of the way through the 2025-26 NBA season, the Eastern Conference is a jumbled mess. The Detroit Pistons (21-5) and New York Knicks (18-7) have gained some separation over everyone else, but there are only 1.5 games separating the No. 3 seed Toronto Raptors (16-11) and the No. 9 seed Miami Heat (14-12).

At 14-11, the Sixers find themselves smack dab in the middle of that group. They jumped out to a 5-1 start this season, but they've hovered around .500 over the past month-and-a-half.

It's still hard to know what to make of this year's team. Tyrese Maxey is taking a superstar leap, Paul George has begun to look like the Paul George of old as of late, and Joel Embiid recently had a throwback performance as well. If all three stay healthy, the Sixers might be a legitimate dark horse in the East.

However, over the past month, the Sixers have not won a single game against a team that's currently above .500. They've mostly beaten up on bad and/or rebuilding teams and lost to good teams, which doesn't inspire much confidence in their ability to contend for a championship this year.

In the Sixers' defense, they've rarely been at full strength this year. George and Embiid missed a ton of time early in the season, while Kelly Oubre Jr. has been sidelined since mid-November with an LCL sprain. Once he returns, the Sixers may get a better read on their biggest needs leading up to the Feb. 5 NBA trade deadline.

Luckily, they have a number of tough tests between now and then that could help determine whether they should be buyers or sellers at this year's deadline.

Sixers have upcoming measuring-stick games

Over the next month, the Sixers have three games against the Knicks, two against the Toronto Raptors and two against the Cleveland Cavaliers. They'll also face the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets over that stretch. Those games may be their best opportunity to see how close they are to legitimate championship contention.

If the Sixers hold their own against most of those opponents, that could signal to the front office that they're not far off from the best of the best. The Sixers still might not want to go all-in at the trade deadline—after all, they need to keep the long term in mind with Maxey and VJ Edgecombe—but that might at least incentivize them to swing a smaller deal that improves their chances of making some noise in the playoffs.

However, if the Sixers get annihilated by those title hopefuls and continue only feasting on bad teams, that might suggest they aren't worth sinking more resources into. Maybe they'll shuffle some ancillary pieces around, but they likely wouldn't dangle future first-round picks for win-now pieces.

In all likelihood, the Sixers will split the difference between the two over the next month. They might pick up a few impressive wins if they stay healthy, but they aren't poised to rip off a Thunder-esque double-digit-game win streak. In that case, two other factors could determine which direction they take at the deadline.

As always, health and the luxury tax loom large

If one of Maxey, George or Embiid suffer a long-term injury over the next month, that could shut the door on the Sixers becoming major buyers at the deadline. They aren't going anywhere meaningful this season unless all three stay healthy. Given the injury histories of Embiid and George in particular, that's no lock.

That also may be why the Sixers wait until closer to the deadline before deciding on their direction. Seeing how the next few weeks play out health-wise could give them more clarity as to whether it's worth spending future assets on this year's squad.

The other consideration to keep in mind is the NBA's luxury-tax line. With $194.9 million in salary on their books for tax/apron purposes, the Sixers sit nearly $7 million above the $187.9 million tax line. They could trim their tax bill by salary-dumping Eric Gordon ($2.3 million), but that alone wouldn't get them out of the tax entirely.

If they don't trade Embiid or George, they have only two real options to get out of the tax: trade Oubre ($8.7 million) without taking more than $1.7 million in salary back, or salary-dump both Gordon and Andre Drummond ($5.0 million). Neither move would make this year's squad better, so the Sixers should only go that route if they get bowled over with an offer or they decide to punt on the season.

The Sixers owe their 2026 first-round pick to the Thunder if it falls outside of the top four, so they have little incentive to pull the ripcord on the season if it does go south over the next month. They stand no realistic chance to out-tank some of the NBA's worst teams. Still, they proved last year that they aren't above wasting resources to avoid paying the tax. Unless this year's squad proves itself worthy of additional investments, fans can't rule out that possibility.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.

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