The Sixers Are One Win Away From a Historic Upset Over the Celtics

On Saturday, the Sixers have the chance to exorcise 40-plus years of playoff demons.

The Sixers haven't beat the Boston Celtics in a playoff series since 1982. I am a father of two children, one of whom is going into kindergarten this fall, and I have not seen the Sixers beat the Celtics in a playoff series in my lifetime.

The Sixers have the chance to change that Saturday.

The Celtics have never lost a playoff series after going up 3-1. They're 32-0 in that across franchise history. The Sixers, meanwhile, have never won a playoff series after going down 3-1. They're 0-18 across franchise history.

They have the chance to change that Saturday, too.

The Sixers are going into Game 7 as nearly double-digit underdogs, per FanDuel Sportsbook. They were even bigger dogs heading into Game 5, though, and they were also underdogs in Game 6. They won both games outright.

As Shirley Coshatt of CelticsBlog noted, the Celtics have bested the Sixers twice in the past when the tables were turned:

"In NBA history, there have been 293 series that were tied 3 games to 1. Of those 298 series, the team that was up 3-1 went on to win the series 285 times. (95.6% winning percentage). But, there were 13 series where the team that was down 1-3 came back to win the series (4.4%) Those 13 teams included the 1968 Celtics and the 1981 Celtics. Both of those comeback wins were against the Philadelphia 76ers."

If the Sixers return the favor this year, it'll be one of the biggest upsets in NBA history.

The biggest NBA playoff upsets ever

The Sixers entered this series as +600 underdogs, according to Patrick Everson of Vegas Insider. After falling into a 3-1 hole, they were +2200 win to advance to the Eastern Conference semifinals. Even after winning Game 5, they were still +1100.

In-series odds will always wildly fluctuate from game to game based on how close a team is to getting eliminated. The pre-series odds are the bigger tell when it comes to the caliber of an upset.

This year's Los Angeles Lakers just joined the list of biggest upsets ever. They were +550 heading into the series due to the injuries to Luka Dončić (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique), per Everson. Reaves returned in Game 5, but Dončić did not return all series. That didn't stop them from pulling off the upset, led by 41-year-old LeBron James.

The Sixers beating the Celtics would be an even bigger upset than that. In fact, it would be the sixth-biggest upset in NBA playoff history.

The Sixers had their own health issues to worry about leading up to this year's playoffs. Joel Embiid got his appendix removed with three days left in the regular season, putting his playoff availability in doubt. Embiid wound up returning in Game 4, less than three weeks removed from getting surgery.

The Sixers are +235 underdogs heading into Game 7, per FanDuel Sportsbook, which is the closest they've been to the Celtics all series. Given the long, sordid history between these two franchises, everything says the Celtics are going to take care of business Saturday.

But what if they don't?

Have the Sixers cracked the Celtics' code?

All season long, the Sixers' defensive scheme was built around sending extra help to prevent drives to the basket. That had the unfortunate byproduct of leaving three-point shooters wide open, which is instant death against a long-range-heavy team like the Celtics.

For the first few games of this series, the Sixers fell into that same trap. That contributed to their blowout losses in Games 1 and 4. But over the past two games, they've been far more defensively disciplined about sticking with their man.

Having Embiid back patrolling the middle certainly helps. Although he's nowhere near the peak of his defensive powers anymore, there's still a stark difference between him and Andre Drummond or Adem Bona when it comes to rim protection. With Embiid as the last line of defense, the Sixers can be more aggressive about sticking with their man and trusting him to clean up their defensive breakdowns.

The Celtics will assuredly come prepared with counters in Game 7. The Sixers are walking into an incredibly hostile environment in what's long been a house of horrors for them. No one should be surprised if they lose Saturday.

But if they win, they'll be vanquishing not just this year's Celtics; they'll be exorcising 40-plus years of playoff demons.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.

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