Bulls Rebuild Could Instantly Hit a Wall with New NBA Draft Lottery Rules

The NBA's crackdown on tanking is about to reach an inflection point.

ESPN's Shams Charania revealed this week that the league office has sent all 30 teams a new proposal to combat what they believe is a massive issue. Deemed a "3-2-1 lottery" system, the resolution will completely reshape the current odds and increase the number of teams eligible for the No. 1 overall pick.

The plan would be for the new process to go into place as soon as the 2027 season. A final vote will reportedly be held on May 28 by the Board of Governors. However, according to Charania, there is already a belief that the majority of the framework has enough support to be put into practice.

So, how exactly will this new lottery work? And, more importantly, what might it mean for the Chicago Bulls? Let's try to answer both.

The NBA's Potential New Lottery Rules ...

To the surprise of very few, the NBA likely made this far more complicated than it needed to be. They didn't simply flatten the odds for all lottery teams or change the number of times an organization could be eligible for a top pick. Instead, they drew from a wide range of ideas to create one complex process.

Here are the bullet points:

• Lottery moves from 14 to 16 teams
• Worst three teams receive two lottery balls each, can't fall past No. 12
• Teams that finish 4-10 will receive three lottery balls each, can fall as far as No. 16
• Play-In teams seeded No. 9 and No. 10 in both conferences receive two lottery balls
• Loser of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 Play-In game gets one lottery ball
• No team can win No. 1 overall in consecutive seasons
• No team can win a Top 5 pick in three straight seasons
• Teams can not protect picks in the 12-15 range

Did you follow all that? No? I can't blame you!

The biggest takeaway is that the NBA is looking to aggressively deter teams from finishing at the bottom of the league. Unlike the current system that rewards the worst three teams with the same odds for No. 1 overall, those teams would now have a worse shot at the top pick than the SEVEN teams below them. In fact, their odds would be the same as the final four Play-In squads.

Of course, this also now flattens the odds for teams 4-10. The current lottery gives the fourth-worst team a 45.2 percent chance at a Top 4 pick and an 11.5 percent chance at No. 1, while No. 10 has only a 13.9 percent shot to move into the Top 4 and a 3.0 percent chance to steal the top spot. In other words, we're talking about a drastic change!

Will This Help or Hurt the Chicago Bulls?

Noa Essengue stands with NBA commissioner Adam Silver, Chicago Bulls, NBA Draft — Jun 25, 2025; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Noa Essengue stands with NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected as the 12th pick by the Chicago Bulls in the first round of the 2025 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

There is a case to make that this would be a saving grace for the Chicago Bulls had Arturas Karnisovas still been in power. The NBA would never sell it this way, but this is essentially a lottery that now rewards mediocrity as opposed to the bottom of the barrel. And who has been better at living in the middle than the Bulls?

Indeed, this is already the biggest issue many have had with the system. You're not necessarily giving organizations a great reason to dodge the lottery altogether. If anything, you're more so incentivizing teams to hang outside the Play-In tournament picture but still miss the cut. Might this make games a little more competitive in March and April? Sure. However, there will still be plenty of gamesmanship from desperate teams when it comes to landing in that 4-10 range.

Nevertheless, with the Karnisovas era now over, these changes feel like they're coming at quite a difficult time for the Chicago Bulls. A new front office executive is about to take over, and there is a very good chance this person has wanted to undertake a traditional rebuild. Heck, Jake Fischer of The Stein Line practically reported as much, stating that the most recent discussions between candidates and ownership have centered around a rebuilding project.

Does the new lottery mean the Bulls can't rebuild? No, but it's created another hurdle between them and a quick fix in the draft. Put differently, it completely changes what a rebuild looks like. Bad teams have at least gone into each season knowing there was a way for them to improve their chances of a franchise-altering player. The Bulls will not have that luxury. They will instead have to worry about at least seven other teams having the same or better odds to climb up the ranks.

Think about it, folks. The Bulls aren't necessarily in a position to take a giant leap forward in 2026-27. Not to mention, all those teams that were recently tanking and thus boosting the Bulls up the order are now going to play more competitive basketball. It's not out of the question that they could finish as a bottom-five team in the NBA next season ... only to end up drafting 12th. And can you imagine if something like that happens multiple years in a row? It's almost guaranteed that some team eventually experiences this fate.

Say what you will about tanking, but it always supplied broken teams with genuine hope. This is particularly true in an era where free agency has become almost irrelevant. The NBA has now eliminated some of that hope by making it a lot more difficult for struggling teams to dig themselves out of a hole.

The good news is that the Bulls do still have full control over all of their future first-round picks. Not only might this give them more bites at the apple moving forward, but the trade market could now become even more important. Already the best way to add difference-making talent, a more balanced lottery system might make bad teams even more eager to strike deals.

Regardless, the fallout from this change is going to be tremendous. There is no way of knowing exactly how certain teams will handle it or how it might change the entire league's line of thinking until it happens. For the Bulls, though, it comes at an absolutely fascinating time. As if a new front office wasn't already going to have its hands full, they will now have the challenge of maneuvering a whole new lottery process. Figuring out how to make this work for them will be the key to a brighter tomorrow. No pressure, [insert new exec here]!

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