Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 5

Fresh off the most dominant half in the NBA Playoffs this season, the San Antonio Spurs are looking to close out the Portland Trail Blazers at home in Game 5 on Tuesday night.

Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs trailed at the half in Game 4, but they outscored the Blazers 73-35 in the second half, leading to a 21-point win. The Blazers simply ran out of answers on the offensive end, and Wembanyama (seven blocks, four steals) had his fingerprints all over the game on the defensive end.

After missing Game 3 with a concussion, Wembanyama showed no ill effects in Game 4, and he’s off the Spurs’ injury report ahead of Game 5.

As a result, San Antonio is a double-digit favorite at home, where it was 32-8 straight up in the regular season.

Portland was not expected to win this series – it entered as a +1000 underdog – but can it force a Game 6 after blowing Games 3 and 4 at home?

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for Tuesday’s Game 5.

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Blazers +11.5 (-105)
Spurs -11.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Blazers: +425
Spurs: -575

Total

215.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, April 28
Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Frost Bank Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Series: San Antonio leads 3-1

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Injury Reports

Blazers Injury Report

Damian Lillard -- out

Spurs Injury Report

None to report

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Best NBA Prop Bets

Blazers Best NBA Prop Bet

Scoot Henderson 12+ Points (-178)

Scoot Henderson struggled in Game 4 against the Spurs, shooting 0-for-7 from the field, failing to score.

Despite that, I’m going to trust him in Game 5 to score 12 or more points.

Henderson had dominated the first three games of this series, scoring at least 18 in each matchup while shooting 56.5 percent from the field and 52.2 percent from 3. So, one bad shooting game shouldn’t completely take him off the radar in this market.

The former No. 3 overall pick averaged 14.2 points per game in the regular season, and he’s arguably been the team’s best offensive player in this series (outside of Game 4). The Spurs are an elite defensive group, but this number is way too low considering Scoot averaged 15.3 shots per game in the first three games of this series.

I’ll trust him to bounce back on Tuesday night.

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Spurs should close out this series on Tuesday:

The Spurs rallied from deficits in Games 3 and 4, and they now have a stranglehold on the Blazers in this first-round matchup.

Victor Wembanyama looked like his usual self in his return from a concussion in Game 4, recording seven blocks and four steals while also putting up 27 points and 12 rebounds. San Antonio is a much better team with him on the floor, and the only loss for the team in the series was a second-half collapse in Game 2 after he went out with his concussion.

Portland had the worst offensive rating of any playoff team after Sunday’s Game 4 loss, and I don’t expect that to change against a Spurs team that was No. 3 in defensive rating during the regular season. In fact, the Spurs have a defensive rating that is seven points better than it was during the regular season.

San Antonio dominated at home all season, going 32-8, and it has covered the spread in 21 games as a home favorite. Meanwhile, the Blazers are just 13-14 against the spread as road dogs, posting an average scoring margin of -9.4 in those games.

The Spurs seemed to put this series to bed in Game 4 when they outscored the Blazers 73-35 in the second half. I’m buying them to finish the job at home.

Pick: Spurs -11.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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