Boston Celtics Competition Keeps Losing: How Does It Impact Eastern Conference Race?

The Boston Celtics increased their lead over the third-place New York Knicks on Monday night, by doing nothing more than sitting in their hotel rooms in San Antonio.

That's because the Knicks lost again, their second-straight loss and third in their last four games. The loss put the Knicks three full games behind the Celtics with 18 games left on Boston’s schedule (and 16 left for New York).

The Pistons, meanwhile, have lost four games in a row to watch their lead over the Celtics drop to just 2.5 games. We can consider it a 3.5 game lead, though, because they have beaten Boston three out of four times to seal the tiebreaker. The Pistons have 19 games left on their schedule.

It’s getting tight for everyone. Now’s the time for teams to make their moves, if there is one to be made.

The Pistons losing streak has given Celtics fans some hope. It’s still more likely that the Pistons have done just enough to hold on to the top spot than lose it at this point, but there's hope nonetheless.

Detroit will have to lose at least four games the rest of the way, and more likely six or seven, for Boston to make a run. With the Celtics at 43-21, three games behind Detroit in the loss column, Detroit would have to get to 22 losses to fall behind Boston.

At their current .714 winning percentage, they should go 13-6 the rest of the way (I rounded down because of their current struggles). That would give them a final record of 58-24. Boston would have to go 16-2 to wrap up the season to take first.

And while this season has taught me never to doubt this year’s Celtics team, that's still very unlikely for a team with games against San Antonio, Oklahoma City twice, Minnesota, Phoenix, and New York. Boston’s .672 winning percentage puts them at a pace to win 12 more games and finish at 55-27.

Detroit would have to go 9-10 over their last 19 to give up first place.

Boston’s remaining schedule is the third-hardest in the league according to tankathon. Detroit’s is the sixth easiest. I’m not going to count Boston out of anything right now, especially because the Pistons have hit a rough patch at the wrong time. If the tiebreaker wasn’t in play here, I’d say there's a better chance to catch Detroit.

Still, it’s worth watching the Pistons to see how this plays out. It’s a tough time for Boston to have the Spurs and Thunder on the schedule, so that makes this week critical to Boston’s chances. If they can beat San Antonio and OKC, the calculus changes a lot. If the Pistons struggle and continue their losing streak at the same time, then everything changes.

At this point, the Celtic are most likely to finish as the second seed, because the Knicks continue to do Boston a favor as well.

Their recent losses have dropped them four games behind Boston in the loss column. That means Boston’s expected 12-6 finish would force the Knicks to go at least 14-2 in their final 16 games, with one massive caveat.

They’d have to beat the Celtics on April 9. If the Knicks win that game, they’d own the tiebreaker. If Boston wins that, they’d trigger a sequence of tiebreaker scenarios that could get complicated, and would make every game against an Eastern Conference opponent massively important.

Here’s a list of NBA tiebreakers

Better winning percentage in games against each other
Division leader wins a tie over a team not leading a division
Division won-lost percentage (only if teams are in same division)
Conference won-lost percentage.
Better winning percentage against teams eligible for the playoffs in own conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position)
Better winning percentage against teams eligible for the playoffs in other conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position)
Better net result of total points scored less total points allowed against all opponents (“point differential”)

A Boston win over the Knicks that left them tied would immediately skip to tiebreaker number three. As you can see, it gets complicated. So Boston going 13-5 in the final 18 would add even more pressure on the Knicks to be nearly perfect down the stretch.

The Knicks have the third-easiest schedule moving forward, but they also face OKC and Houston in addition to Boston. The Thunder and Rockets games are part of a three-in-five stretch.

So the Knicks would have to be nearly perfect the rest of the way to catch Boston, and Boston would have to be nearly perfect to catch Detroit. There are some interesting stretches to watch from here on out, so it’s not impossible for some movement to still happen, but at this point I’m leaning heavily towards the top two seeds being set, and the real fight to be between the Knicks and Cavs for third and fourth.

With just a half game separating them and the Knicks getting smoked by the Pistons all season long, New York might be motivated to hold onto third and avoid the Pistons as long as possible.