Grizzlies Predicted To Surprisingly Out-Perform Lakers, Knicks In ESPN Simulation

A stunning prediction has Memphis overperforming in the 2025-2026 season.

Mar 29, 2025; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (12) and Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) stare at each other during the third quarter at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

The Memphis Grizzlies ended the 2024-25 season with a 48-34 record, securing the eighth seed in the Western Conference before being swept by Oklahoma City in the first round.

With multiple injuries already piling up to both their star players and role players, Memphis could begin the 2025-2026 season slowly.

The Grizzlies issue a series of injury updates, saying Jaren Jackson Jr. (toe) is out for 4-to-6 more weeks while Zach Edey (ankle) is expected to miss 6-to-9 more weeks. pic.twitter.com/ymzq7JxzTN

— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) September 26, 2025

Combine that with the fact that their new head coach, Tuomas Iisalo, has a loaded Western Conference to coach against, and the forecast does not look good for the Grizzlies out of the gates.

ESPN Projects a Surprise Season

ESPN's latest season simulation projects Memphis to finish with 51 wins, ahead of both the Lakers and Clippers, placing the Grizzlies as the fourth seed in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies are even predicted to outperform the star-studded New York Knicks, who many think could outright win the Eastern Conference.

The Lakers won the Pacific Division title for the first time since 2020, while the Clippers earned the fifth seed and pushed Denver to seven games in their playoff series.

Both franchises have established playoff résumés and have deeper, veteran-laden rosters to supplement their stars over the course of the season.

ESPN has the grizzlies winning 51 games this season pic.twitter.com/W7QVPemlRH

— Playoff MEM (@PlayoffMem) October 14, 2025

The ESPN simulation projects Memphis losing in the first round again, this time to the Clippers in six games.

The projection also has Memphis finishing as "the No. 4 seed in the West playoffs" after an "unexpected season," with ESPN BET reportedly listing the Grizzlies as underdogs against the Clippers.

It would be a shock if the Grizzlies finished their 2025-26 campaign ahead of star-studded teams like the Lakers or Knicks, but is it possible?

Why ESPN Might Be Wrong

Player health remains the most significant concern for the Grizzlies. Jaren Jackson Jr. is out with a turf toe injury, Zach Edey is recovering from ankle surgery, Brandon Clarke is recovering from a knee procedure, and Morant is week-to-week with an ankle sprain.

Ja Morant getting some shots up today after practice. Iisalo says he’s still week-to-week. pic.twitter.com/1fchaVjOSo

— Damichael Cole (@DamichaelC) October 13, 2025

Ja Morant appeared in only 50 games last season, averaging 23.2 points and 7.3 assists before being sidelined with a hip injury during the playoffs. 

Morant has never reached 70 games in a single season, with his career high of 67 appearances coming only during his rookie campaign.

Why the Grizzlies Could Surprise

When fully healthy, Memphis still has one of the league's most dynamic young cores.

Morant is a legitimate superstar talent when available, and Jaren Jackson Jr. provides elite rim protection and earned All-Defensive Second Team honors last season.

The development of rookies Zach Edey and Jaylen Wells, both named to the All-Rookie First Team, has given Memphis added depth as well.

Ty with the and-1⃣😤

🎥: @FDSN_Grizzlies pic.twitter.com/VgTqh0VY48

— Grind City Media (@grindcitymedia) October 12, 2025

The Lakers and Clippers do have significant concerns with the age and makeup of their rosters. LeBron James is 40 years old and is entering his 23rd professional season, while the Clippers deployed what ESPN characterized as one of the "NBA's two oldest rosters" this season.

Of course, in a stacked conference, there will be plenty of movement as the season moves along, but if the Grizzlies can get healthier sooner rather than later, maybe they could inch into the top six.