Are the Hawks the Most Likely Team in the NBA Playoffs to Pull off a First Round Upset?

The majority of the NBA playoff field is set and when the play-in tournament concludes, all 16 teams will be in and the march to the NBA Finals will begin.

The Atlanta Hawks had a goal of getting out of the play-in tournament after four straight years of being in it and they did just that. Atlanta is going to be the No. 6 seed in the first round of the playoffs and they are going up against the New York Knicks. The last time the Hawks and the Knicks faced each other in the playoffs was in the first round of the 2021 playoffs, with Atlanta winning convincingly in five games and making a run to the Eastern Conference Finals.

The two teams are very different than five years ago, but this remains arguably the most interesting first round series in the entire playoffs. Atlanta is hoping to pull an upset and I think they might be the team in the best position to do so.

Breaking down the field

Hawks Knick — Apr 6, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Jonathan Kuminga (0) dribbles against New York Knicks guard Landry Shamet (44) during the second half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

To start, I don't think the Pistons, Celtics, Thunder, or Spurs are in any real danger of losing in the first round, though if Detroit plays Charlotte that would be the most likely of the four.

The other three playoff matchups include:

(4) Cleveland vs (5) Toronto
(3) Denver vs (6) Minnesota
(4) Los Angeles vs (5) Houston

It should be noted there is a big unknown with the Lakers and the status of Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves injuries, but I think of the four series, the Hawks are clearly the most likely team to pull off an upset, and the odds makers do too.

At Fanduel Sportsbook, the Knicks are -280 to advance to the second round and the Hawks are currently +230. The Raptors are +370 to advance, the Wolves are +265, and the Lakers are +610.

This is not surprising and it shows how good the Hawks have been over the last two months of the season. The Knicks are an elite opponent and yet they are not massive favorites over Atlanta.

That does not mean that the Knicks are going to be an easy opponent, the Hawks are going to have their work cut out for them if they want to pull the upset and win this series. Atlanta can pull it off though and this has a chance to be a classic first round matchup.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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