Atlanta Hawks vs Milwaukee Bucks: Game Preview, Injury Report, Projected Starting Lineups for Matchup

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The Atlanta Hawks are back in action tonight against a Bucks team that should offer them their stiffest competition in a while.
Over the last four games, the Hawks have essentially played in three straight blowouts and a fourth quarter come-back win over a Brooklyn Nets team that ranks among the worst teams in the NBA. It's fair to say that they've taken care of business, but the slate hasn't been especially demanding.
That is likely to change tonight. Although the Bucks have an abysmal record of 26-34, the possibility of Giannis suiting up is a big factor in determining how well this team will play. If the Bucks are probably trying to make a push for the play-in so that they can get a chance with Giannis, they are going to. Therefore, the Hawks shouldn't expect Milwaukee to roll over and give them this game.
If they can handle business again tonight, the Hawks will have five straight wins under their belt and they'll have a good chance of catching Miami, Philadelphia or Orlando for a top-six seed in the Eastern Conference. They also play Philadelphia in the game after this one and the 76ers just got blown out by the Spurs while losing VJ Edgecombe during the game. In short, the upcoming stretch of games has the potential to be very favorable for the Hawks' chances of making the playoffs.
By the Numbers

The inconsistency of Atlanta's offense has been extremely frustrating this year, but they've looked good against the weaker competition they've faced. They are 8th in points, 14th in FG%, 7th in 3P%, 20th in FT%, 17th in rebounds (22nd in OREB, 13th in DREB), 1st in assists, and 10th in turnovers per game. They're 18th in offensive rating this year.
Their defense has been better as of late, but it's hard to take anything away from their performance considering the schedule. Nevertheless, they are 21st in points allowed, 19th in FG% allowed, 13th in 3P% allowed, 26th in rebounds allowed, 5th in steals, and 19th in blocks. They're 14th in defensive rating this year.
The Bucks' offense is extremely dependent on the presence of Giannis. Due to the fact he's been out for a significant chunk of the season, it hasn't been pretty. They are 28th in points, 7th in FG%, 2nd in 3P%, 30th in FT%, 27th in rebounds (30th in OREB, 15th in DREB), 17th in assists, and 15th in turnovers per game. They're 23rd in offensive rating this year.
Milwaukee's defense underwent a drastic identity change with the loss of Brook Lopez and it hasn't been for the better. They're 16th in points, 19th in FG% allowed, 13th in 3P% allowed, 26th in rebounds allowed, 28th in steals, and 27th in blocks. They're 24th in defensive rating this year.
Three Reasons Atlanta Can Win This Game

The matchup between Kyle Kuzma and Jonathan Kuminga might be a matchup that ends up swinging the game in the Hawks' favor. In the last game Kuzma played against Atlanta, he finished as a -16 in a two point loss. That on-off might be even worse with Kuminga in the fold. Kuminga is a much better athlete and brings an element of speed and rim pressure that Kuzma doesn't really have a good chance of stopping. Since being traded to the Hawks, Kuminga has shot 13-14 at the rim while Kuzma struggles to protect the rim. It's unlikely that Kuzma is going to take the designated role as Kuminga's defender, but this is a matchup the Hawks can and should exploit.
In their last game against the Bucks, one of the keys to the Hawks' victory was their passing. They had 33 assists to Milwaukee's 24 and won the turnover battle 13-10. That ended up making a difference in the narrow loss and they'll need to continue passing the ball well against this defense. One of the most important parts of their ball movement is Dyson Daniels.
Daniels has been exceptionally good as a passer recently - he's had 7+ assists in four of his last five games and racked up 11 assists against the Wizards while only having four turnovers throughout those five games. His passing prowess needs to continue against a Bucks team that is near the bottom of the NBA in steals per game.
It was equally as important for Atlanta to establish an advantage in the paint. They ended up outscoring the Bucks by a 52-38 margin in the paint despite Milwaukee having Giannis for the entire game. Kuminga should help in this department, but the biggest factor has to be Onyeka Okongwu.
Okongwu might be overtaxed as a starting center due to his defensive limitations; the offense is still very good. He's coming off a game where he went head-to-head with a solid defender in Donovan Clingan, giving the young center 25 points and pulling 10 rebounds away from one of the best rebounding centers in basketball. Expect Okongwu to have more success on the offensive glass when going up against arguably the worst offensive rebounding unit in the NBA.
Three Reasons Atlanta Might Lose This Game

The Bucks are 2nd in three-point percentage and even if they're 12th in attempts, it's still a pretty tall task for the Hawks' leaky perimeter defense to chase Milwaukee's shooters around for a whole game and shut them down. AJ Green is a player to watch for the Bucks - he went 6-12 for them during the last game against the Hawks and is shooting a career-high 41.9% from deep on a career-best seven attempts a game.
Even though the Hawks won the battle for paint positioning in the last game, there's some reason to expect that to change in this game. Milwaukee's shooting 69% at the rim this season, which is fifth in the NBA. They don't shoot well from midrange, but this is going to be a big game for both Okongwu as a rim protector and Jalen Johnson as a helpside shot blocker.
The backcourt of Kevin Porter Jr and Ryan Rollins has a 10.4 net rating when combined with Giannis over 230 minutes and they're coming off a poor game against the Celtics. Porter Jr is averaging a career-high 17.5 points per game while Rollins is averaging an efficient 16.8 points on 57.2 TS% and 41.1% shooting from deep on nearly six attempts a game. They've been a productive duo for the Bucks and they're due for a rebound game against a Hawks team that hasn't exactly been great at defending opposing backcourts.
Injury Report
Atlanta Hawks: None
Milwaukee Bucks: Taurean Prince is out.
How to Watch
Here is how you can watch tonight's game:
Start time: 9:30 pm EST
Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Where to watch: FanDuel TV
Hawks
G - Dyson Daniels
G - CJ McCollum
G - Nickeil Alexander-Walker
F - Jalen Johnson
C - Onyeka Okongwu
Bucks
G - Ryan Rollins
G - Kevin Porter Jr
F - AJ Green
F - Giannis Antetokounmpo
C - Myles Turner
Despite the difference in record, the Bucks should give the Hawks a good game and this will be a real measuring stick for where the Hawks are at. It's one thing to beat up on the worst teams in the league and it's entirely different to do it against a team that has one of the five best players in the NBA - when healthy - in their starting five. It should be a close game, but I expect the Hawks to get their fifth consecutive win tonight.

Rohan Raman has been covering the Atlanta Hawks for On SI since June 2024. He has been a contributor to Georgia Tech Athletics for On SI since May 2022 and enjoys providing thoughtful analysis of football, basketball and baseball at the collegiate and professional level.